Football · Albania Championship · 29/08, 18:30

Prediction: AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkoder

Team pages: AF Elbasani · Vllaznia Shkoder

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

AF Elbasani1.42

Vllaznia Shkoder1.29

1X2

39% 28% 33%

AF Elbasani Draw Vllaznia Shkoder

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AF Elbasani 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLLWWD

Vllaznia Shkoder 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani 3–1–2 Vllaznia Shkoder (6 last)

Vllaznia Shkoder1-2AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani3-1Vllaznia Shkoder
Vllaznia Shkoder2-1AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani1-0Vllaznia Shkoder
Vllaznia Shkoder1-0AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani1-1Vllaznia Shkoder

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AF Elbasani 1475 · Vllaznia Shkoder 1436

	AF Elbasani	Draw	Vllaznia Shkoder
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	39%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AF Elbasani: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AF Elbasani	Vllaznia Shkoder
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.9	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.88 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +7’	2.30	3.00	2.88
17:39 +11’	2.30	3.30▲	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AF Elbasani 3–1–2 Vllaznia Shkoder

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Albania Championship	Vllaznia Shkoder	1-2 HT 0-0	AF Elbasani
27/04/26 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	3-1 HT 2-0	Vllaznia Shkoder
15/02/26 Albania Championship	Vllaznia Shkoder	2-1 HT 1-0	AF Elbasani
08/12/25 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	1-0 HT 0-0	Vllaznia Shkoder
04/10/25 Albania Championship	Vllaznia Shkoder	1-0 HT 1-0	AF Elbasani
19/04/25 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	1-1 HT 0-0	Vllaznia Shkoder

Standings · Albania Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Egnatia	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	FK Vora	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	Skenderbeu Korce	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
3	Vllaznia Shkoder	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	AF Elbasani	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Laci	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	Teuta Durres	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	Partizani Tirana	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	FC Dinamo City	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
10	KF Tirana	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AF Elbasani	Vllaznia Shkoder
FC Dinamo City	3-0 W	0-2 L
FK Egnatia	0-4 L	1-2 L
KF Tirana	1-3 L	0-1 L
Bylis Ballsh	1-2 L	0-2 L
FK Vora	2-4 L	0-0 D
Teuta Durres	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vllaznia Shkoder (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AF Elbasani

WWWLLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Laci Albania Championship	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
31/05	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
24/05	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
17/05	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	0-3	0-4	6	11	L
10/05	KF Tirana Albania Championship	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
06/05	Bylis Ballsh Albania Championship	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
02/05	FK Vora Albania Championship	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
27/04	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
18/04	Teuta Durres Albania Championship	0-1	2-1	8	0	W
13/04	Partizani Tirana Albania Championship	0-0	3-0	10	7	W

Vllaznia Shkoder

WDLLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Skenderbeu Korce Albania Championship	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/05	AF Elbasani Albania Championship	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
23/05	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	0-1	1-2	1	9	L
16/05	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
10/05	KS Flamurtari Vlore Albania Championship	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
06/05	KF Tirana Albania Championship	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/05	Bylis Ballsh Albania Championship	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
27/04	AF Elbasani Albania Championship	0-2	1-3	8	8	L
18/04	FK Vora Albania Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/04	Teuta Durres Albania Championship	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkoder?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AF Elbasani win (39%). Probabilities: AF Elbasani 39%, draw 28%, Vllaznia Shkoder 33%.

How many goals are expected in AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkoder?

The model expects 2.71 goals (AF Elbasani 1.42 · Vllaznia Shkoder 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkoder?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.