Football · Albania Championship · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Laci vs AF Elbasani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Laci1.13

AF Elbasani1.3

1X2

31% 30% 39%

Laci Draw AF Elbasani

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Laci 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLLDD

AF Elbasani 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLDDL

Head-to-head

Laci 1–1–2 AF Elbasani (4 last)

Laci0-1AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani1-2Laci
Laci1-1AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani1-0Laci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Laci 1524 · AF Elbasani 1469

	Laci	Draw	AF Elbasani
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Laci (rating 1524 vs 1469).
H2H favours AF Elbasani: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Laci	AF Elbasani
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.4	1.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +25’	2.90	3.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Laci 1–1–2 AF Elbasani

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/03/25 Albania Championship	Laci	0-1 HT 0-1	AF Elbasani
26/01/25 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	1-2 HT 0-1	Laci
10/11/24 Albania Championship	Laci	1-1 HT 1-0	AF Elbasani
12/09/24 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	1-0 HT 0-0	Laci

Standings · Albania Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AF Elbasani	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dinamo City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Vora	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Egnatia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Laci	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Teuta Durres	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Tirana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Partizani Tirana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Skenderbeu Korce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vllaznia Shkoder	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Laci	AF Elbasani
KF Tirana	2-2 D	1-3 L
Vllaznia Shkoder	0-3 L	2-1 W
Partizani Tirana	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AF Elbasani (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Laci

LWWWWWLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	KF Tirana Club Friendly List	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
08/08	Teuta Durres Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
29/07	Vllaznia Shkoder Club Friendly List	0-0	0-3	7	2	L
08/07	Besa Kavaje Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
04/05	Skenderbeu Korce Albania First Division	0-0	1-0	10	6	W
25/04	FK Kukesi Albania First Division	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Pogradeci Albania First Division	1-0	2-0	3	11	W
11/04	Kastrioti Krujë Albania First Division	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
04/04	KS Burreli Albania First Division	1-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/03	Partizani Tirana Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

AF Elbasani

LLLLWWLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Partizani Tirana Club Friendly List	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
16/07	BATE Borisov UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
07/07	BATE Borisov UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
27/06	FK Decic Tuzi Club Friendly List	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
31/05	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
24/05	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
17/05	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	0-3	0-4	6	11	L
10/05	KF Tirana Albania Championship	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
06/05	Bylis Ballsh Albania Championship	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
02/05	FK Vora Albania Championship	0-1	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Laci vs AF Elbasani?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AF Elbasani win (39%). Probabilities: Laci 31%, draw 30%, AF Elbasani 39%.

How many goals are expected in Laci vs AF Elbasani?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Laci 1.13 · AF Elbasani 1.3), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Laci vs AF Elbasani?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.