Football · France Division 1 Women · 14/11, 18:30
Prediction: Montpellier (W) vs FC Fleury 91 (W)
Team pages: Montpellier (W) · FC Fleury 91 (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Montpellier (W)1.15
FC Fleury 91 (W)1.69
1X2
Montpellier (W)
Draw
FC Fleury 91 (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Montpellier (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
FC Fleury 91 (W)
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montpellier (W)
2–1–3
FC Fleury 91 (W)
(6 last)
- FC Fleury 91 (W)1-0Montpellier (W)
- Montpellier (W)1-2FC Fleury 91 (W)
- FC Fleury 91 (W)1-2Montpellier (W)
- Montpellier (W)0-1FC Fleury 91 (W)
- FC Fleury 91 (W)2-3Montpellier (W)
- Montpellier (W)1-1FC Fleury 91 (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montpellier (W) 1449 · FC Fleury 91 (W) 1510
| Montpellier (W) | Draw | FC Fleury 91 (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Fleury 91 (W) (rating 1449 vs 1510).
- H2H favours FC Fleury 91 (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montpellier (W) | FC Fleury 91 (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montpellier (W) 2–1–3 FC Fleury 91 (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 France Division 1 Women | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Montpellier (W) |
| 06/09/25 France Division 1 Women | Montpellier (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FC Fleury 91 (W) |
| 07/05/25 France Division 1 Women | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Montpellier (W) |
| 14/12/24 France Division 1 Women | Montpellier (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Fleury 91 (W) |
| 08/05/24 France Division 1 Women | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Montpellier (W) |
| 20/10/23 France Division 1 Women | Montpellier (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Fleury 91 (W) |
Standings · France Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon (W) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | PSG (W) | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Paris FC (W) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Marseille (W) | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 12 |
| 6 | Nantes (W) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Le Havre (W) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 9 |
| 8 | Strasbourg (W) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 8 |
| 9 | Montpellier (W) | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 10 | Toulouse (W) | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 5 |
| 11 | Saint Malo (W) | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 3 |
| 12 | Lens (W) | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montpellier (W) | FC Fleury 91 (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon (W) | 2-5 L | 1-7 L |
| PSG (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Nantes (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Marseille (W) | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Saint Malo (W) | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Toulouse (W) | 5-1 W | 7-0 W |
| St Etienne (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Montpellier (W) (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montpellier (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 31/10 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/10 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Saint Malo (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Toulouse (W) France Division 1 Women |
5-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
FC Fleury 91 (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Toulouse (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 07/11 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/10 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Saint Malo (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/09 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-6 | 1-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montpellier (W) vs FC Fleury 91 (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Fleury 91 (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Montpellier (W) 25%, draw 26%, FC Fleury 91 (W) 49%.
How many goals are expected in Montpellier (W) vs FC Fleury 91 (W)?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Montpellier (W) 1.15 · FC Fleury 91 (W) 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Montpellier (W) vs FC Fleury 91 (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.