Football · France Division 1 Women · 14/11, 21:00
Prediction: Marseille (W) vs PSG (W)
Team pages: Marseille (W) · PSG (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Marseille (W)0.94
PSG (W)1.84
1X2
Marseille (W)
Draw
PSG (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Marseille (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
PSG (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marseille (W)
0–6
PSG (W)
(6 last)
- PSG (W)2-1Marseille (W)
- Marseille (W)1-5PSG (W)
- PSG (W)11-0Marseille (W)
- Marseille (W)0-5PSG (W)
- PSG (W)4-0Marseille (W)
- Marseille (W)2-5PSG (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marseille (W) 1532 · PSG (W) 1588
| Marseille (W) | Draw | PSG (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 25% | 58% |
| Market | 20% | 21% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSG (W) (rating 1532 vs 1588).
- H2H favours PSG (W): 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marseille (W) | PSG (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.6 | 3.4 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marseille (W) 0–0–6 PSG (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 France Division 1 Women | PSG (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Marseille (W) |
| 05/12/25 France Division 1 Women | Marseille (W) | 1-5 HT 0-1 | PSG (W) |
| 18/01/20 France Division 1 Women | PSG (W) | 11-0 HT 8-0 | Marseille (W) |
| 27/10/19 France Division 1 Women | Marseille (W) | 0-5 HT 0-3 | PSG (W) |
| 22/04/18 France Division 1 Women | PSG (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Marseille (W) |
| 18/11/17 France Division 1 Women | Marseille (W) | 2-5 HT 2-0 | PSG (W) |
Standings · France Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon (W) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | PSG (W) | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Paris FC (W) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Marseille (W) | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 12 |
| 6 | Nantes (W) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Le Havre (W) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 9 |
| 8 | Strasbourg (W) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 8 |
| 9 | Montpellier (W) | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
| 10 | Toulouse (W) | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 5 |
| 11 | Saint Malo (W) | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 3 |
| 12 | Lens (W) | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marseille (W) | PSG (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lyon (W) | 0-5 L | 0-4 L |
| FC Fleury 91 (W) | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Strasbourg (W) | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Montpellier (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Lens (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Le Havre (W) | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 1 L | 6 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: PSG (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marseille (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Saint Malo (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 30/10 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-4 | 0-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/10 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/10 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
PSG (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/11 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 23/10 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 11/09 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marseille (W) vs PSG (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSG (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Marseille (W) 19%, draw 22%, PSG (W) 59%.
How many goals are expected in Marseille (W) vs PSG (W)?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Marseille (W) 0.94 · PSG (W) 1.84), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Marseille (W) vs PSG (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.