Football · Germany 3. Liga · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Ingolstadt vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Team pages: FC Ingolstadt · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

FC Ingolstadt2.14

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II1.19

1X2

58% 22% 20%

FC Ingolstadt Draw TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ingolstadt 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDDWLW

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLWWL

Head-to-head

FC Ingolstadt 2–0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (2 last)

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II0-3FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt3-2TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ingolstadt (rating 1551 vs 1463).
H2H favours FC Ingolstadt: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ingolstadt	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.94

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:40

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.89 → 1.91▲	Pinn 1.91
X	3.84 → 3.89▲	Pinn 3.89
2	3.44 → 3.48▲	Pinn 3.48

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +5’	1.89	3.84	3.44
20:44 +55’	1.91▲	3.89▲	3.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ingolstadt 2–0–0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Germany 3. Liga	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	0-3 HT 0-3	FC Ingolstadt
29/11/25 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	3-2 HT 1-1	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	5	4	0	1	13	5	12
2	Rot-Weiss Essen	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
3	SC Preussen Munster	5	3	1	1	9	8	10
4	Saarbrucken	5	3	0	2	14	8	9
5	FC Viktoria Köln	5	3	0	2	13	8	9
6	Alemannia Aachen	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
7	FC Ingolstadt	5	2	2	1	6	6	8
8	Hansa Rostock	5	2	2	1	11	12	8
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	5	2	1	2	11	7	7
10	Waldhof Mannheim	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	2	1	2	4	5	7
12	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
13	SC Fortuna Köln	5	1	3	1	5	5	6
14	VfB Stuttgart II	5	2	0	3	7	9	6
15	Verl	5	2	0	3	7	11	6
15	SV Meppen	5	2	0	3	7	11	6
17	TSV Havelse	5	1	1	3	8	10	4
18	Jahn Regensburg	5	1	1	3	9	12	4
19	Wurzburger Kickers	5	1	1	3	9	13	4
20	Wehen SV	5	0	2	3	2	9	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ingolstadt	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Saarbrucken	1-0 W	3-2 W
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ingolstadt (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ingolstadt

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	0-3	1	4	L
29/08	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-2	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	2-0	5-1	7	2	W
09/05	1860 Munich Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
03/05	Erzgebirge Aue Germany 3. Liga	3-1	3-5	1	4	L
25/04	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	3-0	3-0	9	4	W
18/04	VfL Osnabruck Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

DLLLWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
29/08	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	2-0	5-1	1	3	W
15/08	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
09/08	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	2-2	2-3	6	3	L
16/05	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
10/05	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	2-0	3-2	4	1	W
02/05	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
25/04	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
18/04	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
10/04	Schweinfurt 05 Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ingolstadt vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ingolstadt win (58%). Probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 58%, draw 22%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ingolstadt vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II?

The model expects 3.33 goals (FC Ingolstadt 2.14 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.