Football · Germany 3. Liga · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt

Team pages: FC Viktoria Köln · FC Ingolstadt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

FC Viktoria Köln1.85

FC Ingolstadt1.32

1X2

49% 24% 27%

FC Viktoria Köln Draw FC Ingolstadt

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Viktoria Köln 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWWLWW

FC Ingolstadt 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWLWL

Head-to-head

FC Viktoria Köln 4–1–1 FC Ingolstadt (6 last)

FC Ingolstadt1-2FC Viktoria Köln
FC Viktoria Köln3-1FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt3-1FC Viktoria Köln
FC Viktoria Köln4-4FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt1-3FC Viktoria Köln
FC Viktoria Köln1-0FC Ingolstadt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Viktoria Köln 1570 · FC Ingolstadt 1522

	FC Viktoria Köln	Draw	FC Ingolstadt
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Viktoria Köln (rating 1570 vs 1522).
H2H favours FC Viktoria Köln: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Viktoria Köln	FC Ingolstadt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.80

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.93
X	3.75 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	3.20 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.53

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:58 +14’	1.95	3.75	3.20
16:21 +9’	1.91▼	3.75	3.30▲
12:39 +8’	1.85▼	3.80▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +23’	2.00	3.76	3.32
15:55 +34’	1.89▼	3.93▲	3.48▲
07:03 +87’	1.90▲	3.89▼	3.49▲
23:46 +35’	1.92▲	3.97▲	3.52▲
02:04 +11’	1.93▲	4.00▲	3.55▲
12:00 +47’	1.93	3.99▼	3.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Viktoria Köln 4–1–1 FC Ingolstadt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	1-2 HT 0-2	FC Viktoria Köln
31/10/25 Germany 3. Liga	FC Viktoria Köln	3-1 HT 0-1	FC Ingolstadt
30/03/25 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Viktoria Köln
22/10/24 Germany 3. Liga	FC Viktoria Köln	4-4 HT 2-1	FC Ingolstadt
03/03/24 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	1-3 HT 1-0	FC Viktoria Köln
03/10/23 Germany 3. Liga	FC Viktoria Köln	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Ingolstadt

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	7	5	0	2	19	9	15
2	MSV Duisburg	6	5	0	1	15	6	15
3	Saarbrucken	7	4	1	2	19	12	13
4	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
5	Rot-Weiss Essen	6	4	1	1	12	8	13
6	Alemannia Aachen	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
7	SC Preussen Munster	6	3	2	1	12	11	11
8	Hansa Rostock	6	3	2	1	14	14	11
9	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	3	1	3	6	7	10
10	Verl	7	3	1	3	10	13	10
11	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
12	FC Ingolstadt	7	2	2	3	7	11	8
13	Waldhof Mannheim	6	2	1	3	9	10	7
14	VfB Stuttgart II	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
15	Wurzburger Kickers	7	2	1	4	11	15	7
16	SC Fortuna Köln	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
17	SV Meppen	7	2	0	5	8	15	6
18	Jahn Regensburg	7	1	2	4	13	17	5
19	Wehen SV	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
20	TSV Havelse	6	1	1	4	9	12	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Viktoria Köln	FC Ingolstadt
SC Preussen Munster	4-1 W	1-1 D
Alemannia Aachen	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Viktoria Köln (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Viktoria Köln

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-1	2	8	W
11/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	2-0	4-0	7	6	W
05/09	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
30/08	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	3-1	4-1	4	7	W
16/08	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
08/08	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-5	5	6	L
16/05	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/05	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	0-3	2	3	L
02/05	SSV Ulm 1846 Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
26/04	Cottbus Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L

FC Ingolstadt

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	0-3	1	4	L
29/08	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-2	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	2-0	5-1	7	2	W
09/05	1860 Munich Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
03/05	Erzgebirge Aue Germany 3. Liga	3-1	3-5	1	4	L
25/04	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	3-0	3-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Viktoria Köln win (49%). Probabilities: FC Viktoria Köln 49%, draw 24%, FC Ingolstadt 27%.

How many goals are expected in FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt?

The model expects 3.16 goals (FC Viktoria Köln 1.85 · FC Ingolstadt 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.