Football · Germany 3. Liga · 08/08, 16:30

Prediction: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs SC Fortuna Köln

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1.57

SC Fortuna Köln1.39

1X2

41% 27% 33%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Draw SC Fortuna Köln

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDWWWD

SC Fortuna Köln 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–1–3 SC Fortuna Köln (6 last)

SC Fortuna Köln0-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1-1SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln1-3SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1-3SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln2-0SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2-3SC Fortuna Köln

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1538 · SC Fortuna Köln 1553

	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	Draw	SC Fortuna Köln
Our model	41%	27%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SC Fortuna Köln: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	SC Fortuna Köln
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3	2 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +6’	2.20	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–1–3 SC Fortuna Köln

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/19 Germany 3. Liga	SC Fortuna Köln	0-2 HT 0-1	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
14/12/18 Germany 3. Liga	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1-1 HT 1-0	SC Fortuna Köln
16/03/18 Germany 3. Liga	SC Fortuna Köln	1-3 HT 1-2	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
30/09/17 Germany 3. Liga	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1-3 HT 1-1	SC Fortuna Köln
18/03/17 Germany 3. Liga	SC Fortuna Köln	2-0 HT 0-0	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
24/09/16 Germany 3. Liga	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	2-3 HT 0-0	SC Fortuna Köln

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Saarbrucken	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Ingolstadt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Viktoria Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wurzburger Kickers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Fortuna Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hansa Rostock	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jahn Regensburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MSV Duisburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rot-Weiss Essen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Preussen Munster	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Verl	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SV Meppen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Waldhof Mannheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wehen SV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alemannia Aachen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TSV Havelse	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfB Stuttgart II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

WWDLLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	VfR Aalen Club Friendly List	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
18/07	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
11/07	FSV 08 Bissingen Club Friendly List	2-0	7-0	–	–	W
08/07	Pforzheim Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	SGV Freiberg Club Friendly List	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	Stuttgarter Kickers Germany Regionalliga South West	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	SG Barockstadt Germany Regionalliga South West	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
02/05	Mainz II Germany Regionalliga South West	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Bahlinger SC Germany Regionalliga South West	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/04	SGV Freiberg Germany Regionalliga South West	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

SC Fortuna Köln

LWLWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Kickers Offenbach Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
25/07	VVV Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
18/07	Borussia M'gladbach II Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/07	Eintracht Trier Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
11/07	TSV Steinbach Europe Friendlies	0-3	2-3	13	5	L
16/05	Sportfreunde Lotte Germany Regionalliga West	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
09/05	Sportfreunde Siegen Germany Regionalliga West	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	SC Paderborn 07 II Germany Regionalliga West	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	SC Wiedenbruck Germany Regionalliga West	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/04	Cologne II Germany Regionalliga West	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs SC Fortuna Köln?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win (41%). Probabilities: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 41%, draw 27%, SC Fortuna Köln 33%.

How many goals are expected in SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs SC Fortuna Köln?

The model expects 2.96 goals (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.57 · SC Fortuna Köln 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs SC Fortuna Köln?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.