Football · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: AGF (W) vs ASA Aarhus (W)

Team pages: AGF (W) · ASA Aarhus (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

AGF (W)1.44

ASA Aarhus (W)1.59

1X2

34% 26% 41%

AGF (W) Draw ASA Aarhus (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

ASA Aarhus (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWDLW

Head-to-head

AGF (W) 2–1 ASA Aarhus (W) (3 last)

ASA Aarhus (W)3-1AGF (W)
ASA Aarhus (W)0-4AGF (W)
AGF (W)2-0ASA Aarhus (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF (W) 1389 · ASA Aarhus (W) 1496

	AGF (W)	Draw	ASA Aarhus (W)
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASA Aarhus (W) (rating 1389 vs 1496).
H2H favours AGF (W): 2-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF (W)	ASA Aarhus (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.4	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	1.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:46 +22’	2.63	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF (W) 2–0–1 ASA Aarhus (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	ASA Aarhus (W)	3-1 HT 2-1	AGF (W)
12/05/21 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	ASA Aarhus (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	AGF (W)
03/04/21 Denmark Play-Offs Women	AGF (W)	2-0	ASA Aarhus (W)

Standings · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HB Koge (W)	10	8	1	1	30	11	25
2	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	10	6	3	1	32	12	21
3	Brondby (W)	10	6	2	2	25	8	20
4	Fortuna Hjørring (W)	10	5	2	3	23	12	17
5	Midtjylland (W)	10	5	2	3	15	13	17
6	ASA Aarhus (W)	10	4	1	5	12	19	13
7	Kolding IF (W)	10	4	0	6	20	29	12
8	Odense BK (W)	10	3	1	6	6	21	10
9	FC Copenhagen (W)	10	2	0	8	12	33	6
10	AGF (W)	10	1	0	9	7	24	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF (W)	ASA Aarhus (W)
Kolding IF (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Odense BK (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Nordsjaelland (W)	0-2 L	1-3 L
FC Copenhagen (W)	4-2 W	0-1 L
Midtjylland (W)	1-2 L	1-0 W
HB Koge (W)	0-2 L	0-4 L
Fortuna Hjørring (W)	0-3 L	2-1 W
Brondby (W)	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: ASA Aarhus (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF (W)

LLLLLLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
29/09	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
22/09	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
12/09	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	4-2	7	3	W
05/09	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	1-2	1	0	L
29/08	HB Koge (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
19/08	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	0-3	1	0	L
16/08	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
02/08	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	0-4	4	2	L
25/07	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-2	1-3	3	2	L

ASA Aarhus (W)

WLLLWLWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
26/09	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-3	0-3	1	0	L
19/09	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
05/09	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
29/08	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
22/08	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	1-4	6	0	L
15/08	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	1-3	4	0	L
01/08	HB Koge (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-3	0-4	3	0	L
25/07	AGF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-1	3-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF (W) vs ASA Aarhus (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ASA Aarhus (W) win (41%). Probabilities: AGF (W) 34%, draw 26%, ASA Aarhus (W) 41%.

How many goals are expected in AGF (W) vs ASA Aarhus (W)?

The model expects 3.03 goals (AGF (W) 1.44 · ASA Aarhus (W) 1.59), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF (W) vs ASA Aarhus (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.