Football · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen · 03/11, 19:00

Prediction: AGF (W) vs Midtjylland (W)

Team pages: AGF (W) · Midtjylland (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

AGF (W)0.99

Midtjylland (W)2.17

1X2

15% 21% 64%

AGF (W) Draw Midtjylland (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Midtjylland (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AGF (W) 2–1 Midtjylland (W) (3 last)

Midtjylland (W)2-1AGF (W)
Midtjylland (W)2-3AGF (W)
AGF (W)4-0Midtjylland (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF (W) 1414 · Midtjylland (W) 1522

	AGF (W)	Draw	Midtjylland (W)
Our model	15%	21%	63%
Market	16%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midtjylland (W) (rating 1414 vs 1522).
H2H favours AGF (W): 2-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF (W)	Midtjylland (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.5	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.53 ★
2	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.46

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +1’	5.50	4.50	1.40
20:06 +2’	5.25▼	4.33▼	1.42▲
16:59 +3’	5.75▲	4.33	1.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:57 +11’	5.46	4.45	1.45
23:48 +15’	5.48▲	4.50▲	1.44▼
14:03	5.46▼	4.43▼	1.45▲
17:00 +2’	5.61▲	4.53▲	1.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF (W) 2–0–1 Midtjylland (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	Midtjylland (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	AGF (W)
16/11/25 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	Midtjylland (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	AGF (W)
27/09/25 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	AGF (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Midtjylland (W)

Standings · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HB Koge (W)	13	10	2	1	36	15	32
2	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	13	7	4	2	38	14	25
3	Brondby (W)	13	7	3	3	29	11	24
4	ASA Aarhus (W)	13	7	1	5	17	20	22
5	Fortuna Hjørring (W)	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
6	Midtjylland (W)	12	6	3	3	17	14	21
7	Kolding IF (W)	13	4	1	8	22	33	13
8	Odense BK (W)	13	4	1	8	8	25	13
9	FC Copenhagen (W)	13	3	0	10	16	39	9
10	AGF (W)	12	1	0	11	8	32	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF (W)	Midtjylland (W)
FC Nordsjaelland (W)	0-5 L	0-0 D
ASA Aarhus (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
Kolding IF (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Odense BK (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Copenhagen (W)	4-2 W	2-0 W
HB Koge (W)	0-2 L	0-4 L
Brondby (W)	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Midtjylland (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-4	0-5	5	2	L
17/10	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-2	1-3	8	1	L
03/10	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
29/09	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
22/09	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
12/09	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	4-2	7	3	W
05/09	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	1-2	1	0	L
29/08	HB Koge (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
19/08	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	0-3	1	0	L
16/08	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-3	7	3	L

Midtjylland (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-1	1	0	W
18/10	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
03/10	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
27/09	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	2-0	15	3	W
19/09	HB Koge (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
15/09	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-2	1-4	2	0	L
05/09	AGF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
29/08	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
22/08	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	4-1	2	0	W
15/08	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	3-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF (W) vs Midtjylland (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Midtjylland (W) win (64%). Probabilities: AGF (W) 15%, draw 21%, Midtjylland (W) 64%.

How many goals are expected in AGF (W) vs Midtjylland (W)?

The model expects 3.16 goals (AGF (W) 0.99 · Midtjylland (W) 2.17), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF (W) vs Midtjylland (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.