Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: FK Hodonin vs Frydek Mistek

Team pages: FK Hodonin · Frydek Mistek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

FK Hodonin1.38

Frydek Mistek1.28

1X2

39% 27% 34%

FK Hodonin Draw Frydek Mistek

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Hodonin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLLWWW

Frydek Mistek 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDWDLW

Head-to-head

FK Hodonin 2–2–2 Frydek Mistek (6 last)

Frydek Mistek1-1FK Hodonin
FK Hodonin2-1Frydek Mistek
FK Hodonin1-2Frydek Mistek
Frydek Mistek3-0FK Hodonin
FK Hodonin1-1Frydek Mistek
Frydek Mistek0-1FK Hodonin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Hodonin 1510 · Frydek Mistek 1533

	FK Hodonin	Draw	Frydek Mistek
Our model	38%	28%	33%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Hodonin	Frydek Mistek
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.6	4.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.86 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +21’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +75’	2.23	3.25	2.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Hodonin 2–2–2 Frydek Mistek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Czechia 3. Liga	Frydek Mistek	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Hodonin
25/10/25 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Hodonin	2-1 HT 1-1	Frydek Mistek
26/03/25 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Hodonin	1-2 HT 0-1	Frydek Mistek
11/08/24 Czechia 3. Liga	Frydek Mistek	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Hodonin
23/03/24 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Hodonin	1-1 HT 1-0	Frydek Mistek
18/08/23 Czechia 3. Liga	Frydek Mistek	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Hodonin

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Artis Brno B	11	7	4	0	20	4	25
2	FC Brno II	11	7	2	2	24	16	23
3	SK Unicov	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
4	Frydek Mistek	11	6	3	2	19	10	21
5	Sigma Olomouc B	11	6	1	4	20	13	19
6	SK Hranice	11	5	2	4	15	10	17
7	MFK Vitkovice	11	4	4	3	12	9	16
8	TJ Unie Hlubina	11	4	3	4	26	22	15
9	Slovacko II	11	4	3	4	16	12	15
10	CSK Uhersky Brod	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
11	FC Trinity Zlin B	11	4	3	4	13	16	15
12	FK Hodonin	11	4	2	5	14	13	14
13	SFK Vrchovina	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	MFK Karvina B	11	3	2	6	15	21	11
15	FC Vsetin	11	3	1	7	11	24	10
16	FK Blansko	11	1	5	5	16	28	8
17	Polanka	11	1	3	7	7	17	6
18	MFK Havirov	11	0	5	6	6	20	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Hodonin	Frydek Mistek
TJ Unie Hlubina	4-1 W	2-3 L
FC Vsetin	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Brno II	1-0 W	2-2 D
MFK Karvina B	0-1 L	3-0 W
Sigma Olomouc B	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Hodonin (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Hodonin

DLDLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	TJ Unie Hlubina Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	4-1	9	7	W
26/09	FC Vsetin Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
20/09	FC Brno II Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	SK Hranice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
06/09	MFK Karvina B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
02/09	Sigma Olomouc B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	0	3	W
29/08	MFK Vitkovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
23/08	FC Trinity Zlin B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/08	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
08/08	FK Blansko Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	3-3	3	6	D

Frydek Mistek

DWLWWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	SFK Vrchovina Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	4-2	8	5	W
27/09	Polanka Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
19/09	MFK Havirov Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	3-1	1	5	W
05/09	SK Unicov Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
02/09	MFK Karvina B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/08	Sigma Olomouc B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/08	TJ Unie Hlubina Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
15/08	FC Vsetin Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	15	3	W
09/08	FC Brno II Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Hodonin vs Frydek Mistek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Hodonin win (39%). Probabilities: FK Hodonin 39%, draw 27%, Frydek Mistek 34%.

How many goals are expected in FK Hodonin vs Frydek Mistek?

The model expects 2.66 goals (FK Hodonin 1.38 · Frydek Mistek 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Hodonin vs Frydek Mistek?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.