Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: MFK Vitkovice vs MFK Karvina B

Team pages: MFK Vitkovice · MFK Karvina B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

MFK Vitkovice1.76

MFK Karvina B0.92

1X2

57% 24% 19%

MFK Vitkovice Draw MFK Karvina B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

MFK Vitkovice 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDDWL

MFK Karvina B 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLLDL

Head-to-head

MFK Vitkovice 2–1–1 MFK Karvina B (4 last)

MFK Karvina B1-1MFK Vitkovice
MFK Vitkovice2-1MFK Karvina B
MFK Karvina B5-0MFK Vitkovice
MFK Karvina B0-1MFK Vitkovice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFK Vitkovice 1509 · MFK Karvina B 1453

	MFK Vitkovice	Draw	MFK Karvina B
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MFK Vitkovice (rating 1509 vs 1453).
H2H favours MFK Vitkovice: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFK Vitkovice	MFK Karvina B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.9	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +102’	1.55	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MFK Vitkovice 2–1–1 MFK Karvina B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Czechia 3. Liga	MFK Karvina B	1-1 HT 1-1	MFK Vitkovice
16/08/25 Czechia 3. Liga	MFK Vitkovice	2-1 HT 2-0	MFK Karvina B
19/07/23 Europe Friendlies	MFK Karvina B	5-0 HT 3-0	MFK Vitkovice
31/10/21 Czechia 4. Liga	MFK Karvina B	0-1 HT 0-0	MFK Vitkovice

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Artis Brno B	11	7	4	0	20	4	25
2	FC Brno II	11	7	2	2	24	16	23
3	SK Unicov	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
4	Frydek Mistek	11	6	3	2	19	10	21
5	Sigma Olomouc B	11	6	1	4	20	13	19
6	SK Hranice	11	5	2	4	15	10	17
7	MFK Vitkovice	11	4	4	3	12	9	16
8	TJ Unie Hlubina	11	4	3	4	26	22	15
9	Slovacko II	11	4	3	4	16	12	15
10	CSK Uhersky Brod	11	4	3	4	18	18	15
11	FC Trinity Zlin B	11	4	3	4	13	16	15
12	FK Hodonin	11	4	2	5	14	13	14
13	SFK Vrchovina	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	MFK Karvina B	11	3	2	6	15	21	11
15	FC Vsetin	11	3	1	7	11	24	10
16	FK Blansko	11	1	5	5	16	28	8
17	Polanka	11	1	3	7	7	17	6
18	MFK Havirov	11	0	5	6	6	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFK Vitkovice	MFK Karvina B
FC Trinity Zlin B	3-0 W	0-1 L
SK Artis Brno B	0-0 D	2-2 D
FK Blansko	0-0 D	3-5 L
Slovacko II	1-0 W	1-3 L
FK Hodonin	2-0 W	1-0 W
SFK Vrchovina	0-1 L	0-1 L
Polanka	0-0 D	2-1 W
MFK Havirov	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: MFK Vitkovice (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFK Vitkovice

DDLWWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Sigma Olomouc B Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
25/09	FC Trinity Zlin B Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
20/09	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	FK Blansko Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
05/09	Slovacko II Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
02/09	SK Unicov Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
29/08	FK Hodonin Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	SFK Vrchovina Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
16/08	Polanka Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
08/08	MFK Havirov Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	15	3	D

MFK Karvina B

WDWLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	FC Trinity Zlin B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
25/09	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
20/09	FK Blansko Czechia 3. Liga	2-2	3-5	5	3	L
13/09	Slovacko II Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
06/09	FK Hodonin Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
02/09	Frydek Mistek Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
29/08	SFK Vrchovina Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
23/08	Polanka Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/08	MFK Havirov Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
09/08	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFK Vitkovice vs MFK Karvina B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MFK Vitkovice win (57%). Probabilities: MFK Vitkovice 57%, draw 24%, MFK Karvina B 19%.

How many goals are expected in MFK Vitkovice vs MFK Karvina B?

The model expects 2.68 goals (MFK Vitkovice 1.76 · MFK Karvina B 0.92), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MFK Vitkovice vs MFK Karvina B?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.