Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: SFK Vrchovina vs FK Hodonin

Team pages: SFK Vrchovina · FK Hodonin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

SFK Vrchovina1.24

FK Hodonin1.73

1X2

27% 25% 48%

SFK Vrchovina Draw FK Hodonin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SFK Vrchovina 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLWLL

FK Hodonin 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

SFK Vrchovina 2–4 FK Hodonin (6 last)

FK Hodonin0-1SFK Vrchovina
SFK Vrchovina1-5FK Hodonin
SFK Vrchovina0-2FK Hodonin
FK Hodonin2-0SFK Vrchovina
FK Hodonin3-2SFK Vrchovina
SFK Vrchovina2-1FK Hodonin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SFK Vrchovina 1440 · FK Hodonin 1528

	SFK Vrchovina	Draw	FK Hodonin
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	28%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Hodonin (rating 1440 vs 1528).
H2H favours FK Hodonin: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SFK Vrchovina	FK Hodonin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.6	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	3.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:55 +8’	3.25	3.80	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SFK Vrchovina 2–0–4 FK Hodonin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Hodonin	0-1 HT 0-0	SFK Vrchovina
04/10/25 Czechia 3. Liga	SFK Vrchovina	1-5 HT 0-1	FK Hodonin
29/04/23 Czechia 3. Liga	SFK Vrchovina	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Hodonin
01/10/22 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Hodonin	2-0 HT 1-0	SFK Vrchovina
04/05/19 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Hodonin	3-2 HT 2-0	SFK Vrchovina
23/09/18 Czechia 3. Liga	SFK Vrchovina	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Hodonin

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frydek Mistek	16	10	3	3	30	15	33
2	SK Unicov	16	10	3	3	36	24	33
3	Sigma Olomouc B	16	10	1	5	35	18	31
4	SK Artis Brno B	16	8	6	2	27	14	30
5	FC Brno II	16	9	3	4	36	27	30
6	FK Hodonin	16	7	2	7	25	18	23
7	TJ Unie Hlubina	16	6	5	5	34	31	23
8	MFK Karvina B	16	7	2	7	28	25	23
9	MFK Vitkovice	16	6	5	5	22	19	23
10	SK Hranice	16	7	2	7	20	22	23
11	Slovacko II	16	6	4	6	26	20	22
12	CSK Uhersky Brod	16	6	3	7	26	27	21
13	FC Trinity Zlin B	16	5	4	7	20	26	19
14	FK Blansko	16	4	5	7	23	34	17
15	SFK Vrchovina	16	5	2	9	17	34	17
16	MFK Havirov	16	2	6	8	13	25	12
17	Polanka	16	3	3	10	16	31	12
18	FC Vsetin	16	3	1	12	12	36	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SFK Vrchovina	FK Hodonin
Polanka	2-4 L	4-0 W
MFK Havirov	2-0 W	1-0 W
CSK Uhersky Brod	0-4 L	1-2 L
SK Unicov	0-4 L	2-3 L
Frydek Mistek	2-4 L	3-0 W
TJ Unie Hlubina	3-2 W	4-1 W
FC Vsetin	2-2 D	2-0 W
FC Brno II	0-3 L	1-0 W
SK Hranice	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	6 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Hodonin (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SFK Vrchovina

LLDWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sigma Olomouc B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
01/11	Polanka Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-4	5	3	L
24/10	MFK Havirov Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
17/10	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	0-4	10	5	L
10/10	SK Unicov Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	4	L
03/10	Frydek Mistek Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	2-4	1	5	L
26/09	TJ Unie Hlubina Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
19/09	FC Vsetin Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
12/09	FC Brno II Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-3	5	9	L
05/09	SK Hranice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

FK Hodonin

LLWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Polanka Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
01/11	MFK Havirov Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
24/10	CSK Uhersky Brod Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
18/10	SK Unicov Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
10/10	Frydek Mistek Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
03/10	TJ Unie Hlubina Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	4-1	9	7	W
26/09	FC Vsetin Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
20/09	FC Brno II Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	SK Hranice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
06/09	MFK Karvina B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SFK Vrchovina vs FK Hodonin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Hodonin win (48%). Probabilities: SFK Vrchovina 27%, draw 25%, FK Hodonin 48%.

How many goals are expected in SFK Vrchovina vs FK Hodonin?

The model expects 2.97 goals (SFK Vrchovina 1.24 · FK Hodonin 1.73), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SFK Vrchovina vs FK Hodonin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.