Football · Japan Football League · 11/10, 06:00

Prediction: FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Yokogawa Musashino FC

Team pages: FC Tiamo Hirakata · Yokogawa Musashino FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

FC Tiamo Hirakata1.65

Yokogawa Musashino FC1.1

1X2

49% 26% 25%

FC Tiamo Hirakata Draw Yokogawa Musashino FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tiamo Hirakata 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLDD

Yokogawa Musashino FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Tiamo Hirakata 3–2–1 Yokogawa Musashino FC (6 last)

FC Tiamo Hirakata4-0Yokogawa Musashino FC
Yokogawa Musashino FC2-3FC Tiamo Hirakata
Yokogawa Musashino FC2-2FC Tiamo Hirakata
FC Tiamo Hirakata1-1Yokogawa Musashino FC
FC Tiamo Hirakata4-1Yokogawa Musashino FC
Yokogawa Musashino FC4-0FC Tiamo Hirakata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tiamo Hirakata 1499 · Yokogawa Musashino FC 1434

	FC Tiamo Hirakata	Draw	Yokogawa Musashino FC
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tiamo Hirakata (rating 1499 vs 1434).
H2H favours FC Tiamo Hirakata: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tiamo Hirakata	Yokogawa Musashino FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	0.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:02 +47’	1.80	3.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tiamo Hirakata 3–2–1 Yokogawa Musashino FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/25 Japan Football League	FC Tiamo Hirakata	4-0 HT 1-0	Yokogawa Musashino FC
07/06/25 Japan Football League	Yokogawa Musashino FC	2-3 HT 0-2	FC Tiamo Hirakata
14/07/24 Japan Football League	Yokogawa Musashino FC	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Tiamo Hirakata
10/03/24 Japan Football League	FC Tiamo Hirakata	1-1 HT 0-0	Yokogawa Musashino FC
02/04/23 Japan Football League	FC Tiamo Hirakata	4-1 HT 2-0	Yokogawa Musashino FC
13/11/22 Japan Football League	Yokogawa Musashino FC	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Tiamo Hirakata

Standings · Japan Football League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criacao Shinjuku	6	4	1	1	7	4	13
2	Reinmeer Aomori	6	4	1	1	8	6	13
3	Azul Claro Numazu	6	3	3	0	8	4	12
4	Honda FC	6	4	0	2	6	5	12
5	Verspah Oita	6	3	2	1	8	7	11
6	Okinawa SV	6	3	1	2	11	7	10
7	Vonds Ichihara	6	3	1	2	7	5	10
8	Minebea Mitsumi	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
9	Veertien Mie	6	3	0	3	10	7	9
10	YSCC	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Maruyasu Okazaki	6	2	0	4	7	8	6
12	FC Tiamo Hirakata	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
13	Grulla Morioka FC	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
14	J-Lease FC	5	1	1	3	6	7	4
15	Briobecca Urayasu SC	6	1	1	4	6	11	4
16	Yokogawa Musashino FC	5	0	0	5	2	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tiamo Hirakata	Yokogawa Musashino FC
Veertien Mie	3-2 W	0-3 L
Maruyasu Okazaki	1-3 L	1-0 W
YSCC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Reinmeer Aomori	5-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tiamo Hirakata (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tiamo Hirakata

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	J-Lease FC Japan Football League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
21/09	Okinawa SV Japan Football League	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
12/09	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	2-1	3-2	2	6	W
05/09	Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League	0-3	1-3	7	6	L
30/08	YSCC Japan Football League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
23/11	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	2-0	5-1	1	3	W
16/11	Okinawa SV Japan Football League	2-0	3-0	1	2	W
08/11	YSCC Japan Football League	2-1	3-2	4	1	W
01/11	Verspah Oita Japan Football League	0-0	2-0	3	2	W

Yokogawa Musashino FC

DWLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
27/09	Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	0-2	0-3	12	3	L
05/09	YSCC Japan Football League	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
30/08	Criacao Shinjuku Japan Football League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/11	Reilac Shiga Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/11	Veertien Mie Japan Football League	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
08/11	Honda FC Japan Football League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
01/11	Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
25/10	Briobecca Urayasu SC Japan Football League	1-0	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Yokogawa Musashino FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tiamo Hirakata win (49%). Probabilities: FC Tiamo Hirakata 49%, draw 26%, Yokogawa Musashino FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Yokogawa Musashino FC?

The model expects 2.76 goals (FC Tiamo Hirakata 1.65 · Yokogawa Musashino FC 1.1), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tiamo Hirakata vs Yokogawa Musashino FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.