Football · Panama LPF · 26/07, 03:30

Prediction: CD Universitario vs San Francisco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

CD Universitario1.32

San Francisco FC1.47

1X2

32% 28% 39%

CD Universitario Draw San Francisco FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Universitario 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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San Francisco FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CD Universitario 1–3–2 San Francisco FC (6 last)

San Francisco FC5-2CD Universitario
CD Universitario3-3San Francisco FC
CD Universitario0-0San Francisco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Universitario 1446 · San Francisco FC 1495

	CD Universitario	Draw	San Francisco FC
Our model	33%	28%	40%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Francisco FC (rating 1446 vs 1495).
H2H favours San Francisco FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Universitario	San Francisco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.1	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.85
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +45’	2.80	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:18	2.85	2.85	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universitario 1–3–2 San Francisco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	5-2 HT 4-2	CD Universitario
12/02/26 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	3-3 HT 2-1	San Francisco FC
19/10/25 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	0-0 HT 0-0	San Francisco FC
26/07/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-2 HT 1-2	CD Universitario
25/05/25 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	1-2 HT 0-1	San Francisco FC
18/05/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Universitario

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Universitario	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Herrera FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Francisco FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Cocle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Veraguas CD	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Universitario	San Francisco FC
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-3 L	0-0 D
Veraguas CD	0-1 L	1-0 W
Union Cocle	2-0 W	0-1 L
Herrera FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Tauro FC	0-2 L	1-4 L
CD Arabe Unido	0-1 L	0-1 L
Plaza Amador	3-4 L	1-2 L
Alianza FC Panama	0-1 L	3-3 D
Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: San Francisco FC (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Universitario

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/05	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	2-4	2-5	9	8	L
26/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
19/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
07/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
28/03	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
22/03	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
15/03	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-4	3-4	5	5	L
08/03	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
05/03	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	4	7	D

San Francisco FC

DLLLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/05	CD Universitario Panama LPF	4-2	5-2	4	8	W
26/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
12/04	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
04/04	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
30/03	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/03	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-4	3	7	L
14/03	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/03	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
03/03	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	3-3	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Universitario vs San Francisco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Francisco FC win (39%). Probabilities: CD Universitario 32%, draw 28%, San Francisco FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in CD Universitario vs San Francisco FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (CD Universitario 1.32 · San Francisco FC 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Universitario vs San Francisco FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.