Football · Panama LPF · 27/07, 01:15

Prediction: Veraguas CD vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Veraguas CD1.16

CA Independiente de la Chorrera0.93

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Veraguas CD Draw CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Veraguas CD 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDWDD

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDDWLD

Head-to-head

Veraguas CD 3–3 CA Independiente de la Chorrera (6 last)

Veraguas CD1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera1-0Veraguas CD
CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-0Veraguas CD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Veraguas CD 1512 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1479

	Veraguas CD	Draw	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Our model	40%	33%	28%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Veraguas CD	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.7	6.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:45 +7’	2.15	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Veraguas CD 3–0–3 CA Independiente de la Chorrera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
13/02/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	1-0 HT 0-0	Veraguas CD
27/10/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-0 HT 0-0	Veraguas CD
12/08/25 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
13/04/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-3 HT 2-0	Veraguas CD
11/02/25 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting San Miguelito	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Universitario	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Francisco FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tauro FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Veraguas CD	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Veraguas CD	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Alianza FC Panama	1-1 D	2-2 D
Union Cocle	1-1 D	0-0 D
CD Universitario	1-0 W	3-2 W
Herrera FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
San Francisco FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
UMECIT	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente de la Chorrera (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Veraguas CD

DWLLWWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
10/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
26/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
19/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-1	5	18	W
04/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/03	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	1-4	1	6	L
23/03	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-2	3-2	2	7	W
15/03	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-1	4	6	D

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DLLLDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/04	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
21/04	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
12/04	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
05/04	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
31/03	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
22/03	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	11	L
16/03	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
09/03	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Veraguas CD vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Veraguas CD win (41%). Probabilities: Veraguas CD 41%, draw 30%, CA Independiente de la Chorrera 29%.

How many goals are expected in Veraguas CD vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Veraguas CD 1.16 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Veraguas CD vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.