Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Ostrov vs Hvezda Cheb

Team pages: FK Ostrov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

FK Ostrov2.33

Hvezda Cheb1.75

1X2

50% 22% 28%

FK Ostrov Draw Hvezda Cheb

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ostrov 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWLLL

Hvezda Cheb 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDLWL

Head-to-head

FK Ostrov 2–1 Hvezda Cheb (3 last)

FK Ostrov4-0Hvezda Cheb
Hvezda Cheb1-0FK Ostrov
Hvezda Cheb2-4FK Ostrov

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ostrov 1456 · Hvezda Cheb 1442

	FK Ostrov	Draw	Hvezda Cheb
Our model	50%	21%	29%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Ostrov: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ostrov	Hvezda Cheb
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.5	1.8 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.6	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:06 +11’	1.80	4.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ostrov 2–0–1 Hvezda Cheb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Ostrov	4-0 HT 1-0	Hvezda Cheb
12/08/23 Czechia 4. Liga	Hvezda Cheb	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Ostrov
02/06/18 Czechia 5. Liga	Hvezda Cheb	2-4 HT 1-3	FK Ostrov

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	12	10	0	2	40	15	30
2	Kravare	12	8	3	1	28	13	27
3	FC Vratimov	12	9	0	3	25	17	27
4	Hlucin	12	7	2	3	23	16	23
5	TJ Valasske Mezirici	12	5	4	3	25	19	19
6	Opava B	12	6	1	5	27	23	19
7	SK Zabreh	12	5	3	4	16	14	18
8	Jiskra Rymarov	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
9	SK Stonava	12	5	2	5	22	22	17
10	TJ Novy Jicin	12	4	3	5	18	22	15
11	Pusta Polom	12	4	2	6	20	24	14
12	Frydek Mistek B	12	4	1	7	23	27	13
13	FK Sumperk	12	2	5	5	15	18	11
14	Bridlicna	12	3	1	8	16	27	10
15	SSK Bilovec	12	2	3	7	9	26	9
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	12	1	0	11	13	44	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ostrov	Hvezda Cheb
SK Slany	0-4 L	0-3 L
SK Steti	1-4 L	1-1 D
Meteor Prague VIII	0-3 L	2-7 L
Chomutov	2-1 W	1-3 L
Banik Sokolov	2-1 W	1-3 L
SK Rapid Psary	1-3 L	1-5 L
Slavoj Vysehrad	2-2 D	2-1 W
Slovan Velvary	3-1 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Ostrov (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Ostrov

LWDLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
17/10	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-4	8	5	L
11/10	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
03/10	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
23/09	FK Brandys nad Labem Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	2-3	6	8	L
19/09	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
06/09	Slovan Velvary Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
29/08	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-3	4	11	L

Hvezda Cheb

LWLLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Slavia Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/10	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
10/10	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	0-4	2-7	3	1	L
19/09	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
12/09	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-3	4	7	L
05/09	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
29/08	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
21/08	Slovan Velvary Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	3-4	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ostrov vs Hvezda Cheb?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Ostrov win (50%). Probabilities: FK Ostrov 50%, draw 22%, Hvezda Cheb 28%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ostrov vs Hvezda Cheb?

The model expects 4.09 goals (FK Ostrov 2.33 · Hvezda Cheb 1.75), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ostrov vs Hvezda Cheb?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.