Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 01/11, 10:15

Prediction: FK Chlumec N.C vs Usti N Orlici

Team pages: FK Chlumec N.C · Usti N Orlici

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FK Chlumec N.C1.39

Usti N Orlici1.26

1X2

40% 25% 35%

FK Chlumec N.C Draw Usti N Orlici

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Chlumec N.C 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Usti N Orlici 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Chlumec N.C 4–2–0 Usti N Orlici (6 last)

FK Chlumec N.C2-1Usti N Orlici
Usti N Orlici2-2FK Chlumec N.C
FK Chlumec N.C3-0Usti N Orlici
Usti N Orlici0-1FK Chlumec N.C
Usti N Orlici1-3FK Chlumec N.C
FK Chlumec N.C1-1Usti N Orlici

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Chlumec N.C 1556 · Usti N Orlici 1524

	FK Chlumec N.C	Draw	Usti N Orlici
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	42%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Chlumec N.C: 4-2-0.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Chlumec N.C	Usti N Orlici
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.5	2.5 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:19 +4’	2.15	4.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Chlumec N.C 4–2–0 Usti N Orlici

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/25 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Chlumec N.C	2-1 HT 2-1	Usti N Orlici
19/10/24 Czechia 3. Liga	Usti N Orlici	2-2 HT 2-2	FK Chlumec N.C
24/02/23 Europe Friendlies	FK Chlumec N.C	3-0 HT 3-0	Usti N Orlici
14/09/22 Czechia Cup	Usti N Orlici	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Chlumec N.C
28/05/22 Czechia 3. Liga	Usti N Orlici	1-3 HT 0-3	FK Chlumec N.C
17/10/21 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Chlumec N.C	1-1 HT 1-0	Usti N Orlici

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	12	10	0	2	40	15	30
2	Kravare	12	8	3	1	28	13	27
3	FC Vratimov	12	9	0	3	25	17	27
4	Hlucin	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
5	TJ Valasske Mezirici	12	5	4	3	25	19	19
6	Opava B	12	6	1	5	27	23	19
7	SK Zabreh	12	5	3	4	16	14	18
8	Jiskra Rymarov	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
9	SK Stonava	12	5	2	5	22	22	17
10	TJ Novy Jicin	12	4	3	5	18	22	15
11	FK Sumperk	13	3	5	5	17	19	14
12	Pusta Polom	12	4	2	6	20	24	14
13	Frydek Mistek B	12	4	1	7	23	27	13
14	Bridlicna	12	3	1	8	16	27	10
15	SSK Bilovec	12	2	3	7	9	26	9
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	12	1	0	11	13	44	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Chlumec N.C	Usti N Orlici
Cechie Vykan	1-1 D	2-0 W
TJ Svitavy	4-1 W	0-0 D
Dvur Kralove	0-0 D	1-0 W
Hlinsko	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Slavia HK	2-0 W	1-3 L
Letohrad	4-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Chlumec N.C (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Chlumec N.C

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cechie Vykan Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	TJ Svitavy Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	4-1	9	2	W
11/10	Dvur Kralove Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
04/10	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
26/09	FC Slavia HK Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
20/09	Letohrad Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	4-1	6	0	W
12/09	MFK Chrudim B Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	9	4	W
06/09	Turnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
30/08	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
23/08	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-2	6	5	L

Usti N Orlici

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
17/10	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
11/10	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
04/10	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	7	5	W
26/09	Cechie Vykan Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	TJ Svitavy Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Dvur Kralove Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	12	6	W
05/09	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	10	4	W
29/08	FC Slavia HK Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Letohrad Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Chlumec N.C vs Usti N Orlici?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Chlumec N.C win (40%). Probabilities: FK Chlumec N.C 40%, draw 25%, Usti N Orlici 35%.

How many goals are expected in FK Chlumec N.C vs Usti N Orlici?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FK Chlumec N.C 1.39 · Usti N Orlici 1.26), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Chlumec N.C vs Usti N Orlici?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.