Football · Switzerland Division 1 Women · 04/09, 19:00
Prediction: Basel (W) vs St Gallen (W)
Team pages: Basel (W) · St Gallen (W)
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Basel (W)2.02
St Gallen (W)0.63
1X2
Basel (W)
Draw
St Gallen (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Basel (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
St Gallen (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Basel (W)
3–2–1
St Gallen (W)
(6 last)
- St Gallen (W)1-0Basel (W)
- Basel (W)3-0St Gallen (W)
- St Gallen (W)1-1Basel (W)
- St Gallen (W)1-1Basel (W)
- Basel (W)2-1St Gallen (W)
- Basel (W)3-0St Gallen (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Basel (W) 1577 · St Gallen (W) 1463
| Basel (W) | Draw | St Gallen (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Basel (W) (rating 1577 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Basel (W): 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Basel (W) | St Gallen (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/75/0% | 17/33/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.8 | 1.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.3 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Basel (W) 3–2–1 St Gallen (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Switzerland Women Play-Offs | St Gallen (W) | 1-0 | Basel (W) |
| 18/03/26 Switzerland Division 1 Women | Basel (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | St Gallen (W) |
| 04/10/25 Switzerland Division 1 Women | St Gallen (W) | 1-1 | Basel (W) |
| 16/03/25 Switzerland Division 1 Women | St Gallen (W) | 1-1 | Basel (W) |
| 12/10/24 Switzerland Division 1 Women | Basel (W) | 2-1 | St Gallen (W) |
| 04/05/24 Switzerland Women Play-Offs | Basel (W) | 3-0 | St Gallen (W) |
Standings · Switzerland Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Zurich (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Grasshopper (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Servette FC Chenois (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Basel (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Young Boys (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | FC Rapperswil-Jona (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 7 | Lucerne (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | St Gallen (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 9 | Yverdon Sport FC (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 | Aarau (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Basel (W) | St Gallen (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Young Boys (W) | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Lucerne (W) | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| FC Rapperswil-Jona (W) | 4-2 W | 1-4 L |
| FC Zurich (W) | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Basel (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Basel (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Servette FC Chenois (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/08 | Young Boys (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Lucerne (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | FC Rapperswil-Jona (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | FC Rapperswil-Jona (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Servette FC Chenois (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/03 | Young Boys (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/03 | St Gallen (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Lucerne (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/02 | FC Zurich (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
St Gallen (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Lucerne (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Yverdon Sport FC (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | FC Rapperswil-Jona (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/05 | Young Boys (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | FC Zurich (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Grasshopper (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Lucerne (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/03 | Basel (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 14/02 | FC Thun (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 07/02 | FC Rapperswil-Jona (W) Switzerland Division 1 Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Basel (W) vs St Gallen (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Basel (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Basel (W) 70%, draw 20%, St Gallen (W) 10%.
How many goals are expected in Basel (W) vs St Gallen (W)?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Basel (W) 2.02 · St Gallen (W) 0.63), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Basel (W) vs St Gallen (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.