Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 16/08, 14:30
Prediction: Groene Ster vs Roosendaal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
Groene Ster1.59
Roosendaal2.05
1X2
Groene Ster
Draw
Roosendaal
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Groene Ster
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Roosendaal
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Groene Ster
0–2
Roosendaal
(2 last)
- Roosendaal3-0Groene Ster
- Groene Ster1-3Roosendaal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Groene Ster 1429 · Roosendaal 1538
| Groene Ster | Draw | Roosendaal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roosendaal (rating 1429 vs 1538).
- H2H favours Roosendaal: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Groene Ster | Roosendaal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.4 | 2.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.4 | 1.8 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Groene Ster 0–0–2 Roosendaal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie | Roosendaal | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Groene Ster |
| 12/10/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie | Groene Ster | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Roosendaal |
Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VV Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | VVSB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | VV Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | RKSV UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | EVV Echt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | VV Goes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | VV UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | SV Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel '38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Groene Ster | Roosendaal |
|---|---|---|
| ASWH | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| TOGB | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Kloetinge | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| SteDoco | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Noordwijk | 4-2 W | 3-4 L |
| Blauw Geel '38 | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Groene Ster
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Eupen Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/04 | Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
Roosendaal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
3-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | Meerssen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/03 | Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie |
2-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 15/03 | Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Groene Ster vs Roosendaal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Roosendaal win (47%). Probabilities: Groene Ster 29%, draw 24%, Roosendaal 47%.
How many goals are expected in Groene Ster vs Roosendaal?
The model expects 3.64 goals (Groene Ster 1.59 · Roosendaal 2.05), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Groene Ster vs Roosendaal?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.