Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 16/08, 14:30
Prediction: VV UNA vs TOGB
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
VV UNA1.56
TOGB1.57
1X2
VV UNA
Draw
TOGB
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
VV UNA
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
TOGB
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VV UNA
3–3
TOGB
(6 last)
- TOGB2-1VV UNA
- VV UNA1-2TOGB
- TOGB1-2VV UNA
- TOGB3-0VV UNA
- VV UNA4-2TOGB
- VV UNA3-2TOGB
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VV UNA 1460 · TOGB 1555
| VV UNA | Draw | TOGB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TOGB (rating 1460 vs 1555).
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VV UNA | TOGB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/22/44% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.1 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.4 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VV UNA 3–0–3 TOGB
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie | TOGB | 2-1 HT 1-0 | VV UNA |
| 09/11/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie | VV UNA | 1-2 HT 0-2 | TOGB |
| 13/04/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie | TOGB | 1-2 HT 1-0 | VV UNA |
| 07/04/24 Netherlands Derde Divisie | TOGB | 3-0 HT 1-0 | VV UNA |
| 05/11/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie | VV UNA | 4-2 HT 2-0 | TOGB |
| 19/03/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie | VV UNA | 3-2 HT 2-0 | TOGB |
Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VV Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | VVSB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | VV Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | RKSV UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | EVV Echt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | VV Goes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | VV UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | SV Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel '38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VV UNA | TOGB |
|---|---|---|
| Noordwijk | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| VVSB | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: TOGB (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VV UNA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | FC Eindhoven Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Meerssen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
TOGB
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Excelsior Maassluis Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/03 | VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/03 | VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VV UNA vs TOGB?
According to our model, the most likely result is an TOGB win (38%). Probabilities: VV UNA 37%, draw 25%, TOGB 38%.
How many goals are expected in VV UNA vs TOGB?
The model expects 3.13 goals (VV UNA 1.56 · TOGB 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in VV UNA vs TOGB?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.