Prediction: FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC
Expected goals: 3.53 (FC Ulaanbaatar 1.96 · Deren FC 1.57). The model gives 47% home, 23% draw, 31% away. Under 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, FC Ulaanbaatar is 8-0-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Deren FC 6-1-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, FC Ulaanbaatar won 3 and Deren FC 1, with 2 draws.
| FC Ulaanbaatar | Draw | Deren FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Ulaanbaatar: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ulaanbaatar | Deren FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1 | 3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 2.4 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ulaanbaatar 3–2–1 Deren FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 23/05/26 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deren FC |
| 26/10/25 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 11/06/25 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Deren FC |
| 09/03/25 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 22/06/24 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ulaanbaatar | Deren FC |
|---|---|---|
| Khangarid Klub | 4-3 W | 2-1 W |
| Central Stallions | 2-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Khoromkhon Club | 7-0 W | 12-0 W |
| Hunters FC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Deren FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ulaanbaatar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 21/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
6-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
Deren FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 24/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 21/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
5-0 | 12-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ulaanbaatar win (47%). Probabilities: FC Ulaanbaatar 47%, draw 23%, Deren FC 31%.
How many goals are expected in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC?
The model expects 3.53 goals (FC Ulaanbaatar 1.96 · Deren FC 1.57), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.