Football · Austria Regionalliga West · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: FC Lustenau vs FC Kitzbuhel

Team pages: FC Lustenau · FC Kitzbuhel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

FC Lustenau1.24

FC Kitzbuhel2.28

1X2

19% 21% 60%

FC Lustenau Draw FC Kitzbuhel

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lustenau 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLLLDL

FC Kitzbuhel 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDWLW

Head-to-head

FC Lustenau 0–1–3 FC Kitzbuhel (4 last)

FC Kitzbuhel2-0FC Lustenau
FC Lustenau1-4FC Kitzbuhel
FC Kitzbuhel1-0FC Lustenau
FC Lustenau1-1FC Kitzbuhel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lustenau 1420 · FC Kitzbuhel 1557

	FC Lustenau	Draw	FC Kitzbuhel
Our model	19%	21%	60%
Market	19%	21%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kitzbuhel (rating 1420 vs 1557).
H2H favours FC Kitzbuhel: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lustenau	FC Kitzbuhel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.9	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 3	3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.5	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +54’	4.75	4.20	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lustenau 0–1–3 FC Kitzbuhel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Austria Regionalliga West	FC Kitzbuhel	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Lustenau
25/07/26 Austria Cup	FC Lustenau	1-4 HT 0-3	FC Kitzbuhel
11/04/26 Austria Regionalliga West	FC Kitzbuhel	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Lustenau
13/09/25 Austria Regionalliga West	FC Lustenau	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Kitzbuhel

Standings · Austria Regionalliga West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Imst	15	12	1	2	34	10	37
2	SC Schwaz	15	12	1	2	45	22	37
3	Hohenems	15	12	0	3	41	17	36
4	FC Kitzbuhel	15	9	1	5	32	21	28
5	FC Dornbirn 1913	15	7	4	4	25	16	25
6	SC Rothis	15	7	3	5	28	28	24
7	WSG Tirol II	15	7	2	6	39	27	23
8	Fugen/Uderns	15	7	1	7	33	35	22
9	SK St Johann	15	6	3	6	23	23	21
10	FC Kufstein	15	4	6	5	22	19	18
11	SVG Reichenau	15	4	5	6	17	22	17
12	FC Lauterach	15	4	4	7	26	33	16
13	SV Lochau	15	3	2	10	16	38	11
14	SCR Altach II	15	2	4	9	17	34	10
15	FC Lustenau	15	1	5	9	18	45	8
16	FC Wolfurt	15	1	2	12	20	46	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lustenau	FC Kitzbuhel
SC Imst	2-7 L	3-2 W
SV Lochau	1-1 D	3-0 W
SK St Johann	1-1 D	0-2 L
FC Wolfurt	3-2 W	3-2 W
WSG Tirol II	1-3 L	2-2 D
SVG Reichenau	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kitzbuhel (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lustenau

DLWDDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SC Schwaz Austria Regionalliga West	0-4	0-6	–	–	L
31/10	FC Lauterach Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	SC Rothis Austria Regionalliga West	2-4	3-4	–	–	L
17/10	Fugen/Uderns Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	3-4	–	–	L
10/10	SC Imst Austria Regionalliga West	1-4	2-7	–	–	L
03/10	SV Lochau Austria Regionalliga West	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/09	SK St Johann Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
19/09	FC Wolfurt Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	WSG Tirol II Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	SVG Reichenau Austria Regionalliga West	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

FC Kitzbuhel

WLWWWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SV Lochau Austria Regionalliga West	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/10	SK St Johann Austria Regionalliga West	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
23/10	FC Wolfurt Austria Regionalliga West	0-2	3-2	–	–	W
18/10	WSG Tirol II Austria Regionalliga West	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	SVG Reichenau Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
03/10	FC Dornbirn 1913 Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
26/09	SCR Altach II Austria Regionalliga West	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	FC Kufstein Austria Regionalliga West	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
13/09	Hohenems Austria Regionalliga West	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/09	SC Imst Austria Regionalliga West	0-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lustenau vs FC Kitzbuhel?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Kitzbuhel win (60%). Probabilities: FC Lustenau 19%, draw 21%, FC Kitzbuhel 60%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lustenau vs FC Kitzbuhel?

The model expects 3.52 goals (FC Lustenau 1.24 · FC Kitzbuhel 2.28), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lustenau vs FC Kitzbuhel?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.