Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: UCSA vs FC Viktoriya Sumy

Team pages: UCSA · FC Viktoriya Sumy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

UCSA1.08

FC Viktoriya Sumy1.35

1X2

29% 28% 42%

UCSA Draw FC Viktoriya Sumy

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UCSA 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Viktoriya Sumy 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

UCSA 0–2–2 FC Viktoriya Sumy (4 last)

UCSA1-1FC Viktoriya Sumy
FC Viktoriya Sumy2-0UCSA
FC Viktoriya Sumy5-1UCSA
UCSA1-1FC Viktoriya Sumy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCSA 1459 · FC Viktoriya Sumy 1517

	UCSA	Draw	FC Viktoriya Sumy
Our model	29%	30%	42%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Viktoriya Sumy (rating 1459 vs 1517).
H2H favours FC Viktoriya Sumy: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCSA	FC Viktoriya Sumy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	3.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:30 +5’	3.00	3.30	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:31 +64’	2.93	3.18	2.10
08:02 +17’	2.95▲	3.20▲	2.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCSA 0–2–2 FC Viktoriya Sumy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Ukraine Persha Liga	UCSA	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Viktoriya Sumy
05/10/25 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Viktoriya Sumy	2-0 HT 1-0	UCSA
27/11/24 Ukraine Persha Liga	FC Viktoriya Sumy	5-1 HT 1-0	UCSA
29/09/24 Ukraine Persha Liga	UCSA	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Viktoriya Sumy

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	8	5	1	2	11	6	16
2	SC Poltava	8	4	3	1	12	3	15
3	PFC Oleksandria	8	4	3	1	12	6	15
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	8	4	2	2	17	8	14
5	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	8	4	1	3	14	12	13
7	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
8	Ingulets Petrovo	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
9	FC Metalist Kharkiv	8	3	1	4	9	11	10
10	UCSA	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	8	3	0	5	8	15	9
12	Nyva Ternopil	8	2	3	3	9	9	9
13	Lokomotiv Kyiv	8	2	3	3	7	9	9
14	FC Chernigiv	7	1	4	2	8	9	7
15	Polissya Zhytomyr II	8	1	3	4	11	14	6
16	FC Probiy Horodenka	8	0	2	6	6	24	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCSA	FC Viktoriya Sumy
Nyva Ternopil	1-0 W	1-3 L
PFC Oleksandria	4-4 D	0-1 L
Polissya Zhytomyr II	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UCSA (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCSA

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/09	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-2	0	6	W
05/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
29/08	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
15/08	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
07/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/07	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	4-4	2	6	D
25/07	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
01/06	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
23/05	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	5	7	L

FC Viktoriya Sumy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	1-3	13	1	L
14/09	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
05/09	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
08/08	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/08	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-0	10	7	W
24/07	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
01/06	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCSA vs FC Viktoriya Sumy?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Viktoriya Sumy win (42%). Probabilities: UCSA 29%, draw 28%, FC Viktoriya Sumy 42%.

How many goals are expected in UCSA vs FC Viktoriya Sumy?

The model expects 2.43 goals (UCSA 1.08 · FC Viktoriya Sumy 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UCSA vs FC Viktoriya Sumy?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.