Football · Austria Landesliga · 04/09, 19:00

Prediction: TSV Grafenstein vs Nussdorf

Team pages: TSV Grafenstein · Nussdorf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

TSV Grafenstein2.74

Nussdorf1.38

1X2

66% 18% 16%

TSV Grafenstein Draw Nussdorf

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Grafenstein 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLDWD

Nussdorf 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

TSV Grafenstein 1–1–0 Nussdorf (2 last)

TSV Grafenstein2-2Nussdorf
Nussdorf1-2TSV Grafenstein

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Grafenstein 1557 · Nussdorf 1419

	TSV Grafenstein	Draw	Nussdorf
Our model	66%	18%	17%
Market	65%	18%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TSV Grafenstein (rating 1557 vs 1419).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSV Grafenstein	Nussdorf
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.38▲	Bet365 1.38
X	5.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	6.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +13’	1.30	5.25	6.50
09:08 +11’	1.38▲	5.00▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Grafenstein 1–1–0 Nussdorf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Austria Landesliga	TSV Grafenstein	2-2 HT 1-1	Nussdorf
17/08/25 Austria Landesliga	Nussdorf	1-2 HT 1-1	TSV Grafenstein

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LAC Inter	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
1	Team Wiener Linien	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Red Star Penzing	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Floridsdorfer AC II	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Sportunion Mauer	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Helfort 15	2	1	0	1	8	2	3
7	SV Schwechat	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
8	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
9	FC 1980 Wien	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Post SV	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
11	Hellas Kagran	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
12	FV Austria XIII	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
12	Slovan HAC	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	WAF Brigittenau	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	First Vienna II	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
16	Simmeringer SC	2	0	0	2	2	10	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Grafenstein	Nussdorf
TSU Matrei	2-2 D	0-1 L
SAK Klagenfurt	1-0 W	0-3 L
Lendorf	1-2 L	1-3 L
SV Dellach/Gail	3-2 W	1-2 L
VST Volkermarkt	3-5 L	3-0 W
ATUS Ferlach	5-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: TSV Grafenstein (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Grafenstein

LWWLWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	TSU Matrei Austria Landesliga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	SV Spittal/Drau Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
07/08	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	Sirnitz Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
03/06	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	3-2	3-2	8	4	W
29/05	VST Volkermarkt Austria Landesliga	3-1	3-5	–	–	L
23/05	ATUS Ferlach Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
16/05	TSU Matrei Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
13/05	ATSV Wolfsberg Austria Landesliga	1-2	3-4	6	2	L

Nussdorf

LLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	SAK Klagenfurt Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
22/08	Lendorf Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	KAC 1909 Austria Landesliga	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
07/08	St Veit SC Austria Landesliga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
02/08	SV Seeboden Austria Landesliga	1-1	3-5	–	–	L
03/06	ASKO Kottmannsdorf Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/05	SV Dellach/Gail Austria Landesliga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
22/05	VST Volkermarkt Austria Landesliga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/05	ATUS Ferlach Austria Landesliga	2-2	2-4	–	–	L
14/05	TSU Matrei Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Grafenstein vs Nussdorf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TSV Grafenstein win (66%). Probabilities: TSV Grafenstein 66%, draw 18%, Nussdorf 16%.

How many goals are expected in TSV Grafenstein vs Nussdorf?

The model expects 4.12 goals (TSV Grafenstein 2.74 · Nussdorf 1.38), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TSV Grafenstein vs Nussdorf?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.