Football · Denmark Cup · 04/08, 18:30
Prediction: Holstebro vs AaB
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
Holstebro1
AaB2.29
1X2
Holstebro
Draw
AaB
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Holstebro
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
AaB
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Holstebro 1567 · AaB 1493
| Holstebro | Draw | AaB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 20% | 65% |
| Market | 15% | 19% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holstebro (rating 1567 vs 1493).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Holstebro | AaB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6 | 1.9 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Holstebro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Skive Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Marienlyst Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Tarup-Paarup Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | OKS Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Oure FA Denmark Series Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Esbjerg II Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Marienlyst Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Tarup-Paarup Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | OKS Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
AaB
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Hillerød Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 17/07 | Silkeborg IF Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Randers FC Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 03/07 | Viborg Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | HB Køge Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Middelfart Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Holstebro vs AaB?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AaB win (66%). Probabilities: Holstebro 15%, draw 20%, AaB 66%.
How many goals are expected in Holstebro vs AaB?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Holstebro 1 · AaB 2.29), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Holstebro vs AaB?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.