Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 08/08, 20:30

Prediction: Wolfsburg vs Kaiserslautern

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Wolfsburg1.79

Kaiserslautern0.98

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Wolfsburg Draw Kaiserslautern

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wolfsburg 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDWWLW

Kaiserslautern 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wolfsburg 1533 · Kaiserslautern 1518

	Wolfsburg	Draw	Kaiserslautern
Our model	55%	25%	19%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wolfsburg	Kaiserslautern
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.61
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.31
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:28 +1’	1.60	4.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:29	1.64	4.21	4.70
15:03	1.63▼	4.27▲	4.70
18:14	1.61▼	4.31▲	4.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kaiserslautern	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Magdeburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nurnberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arminia Bielefeld	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dynamo Dresden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eintracht Braunschweig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cottbus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Pauli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Greuther Furth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hannover 96	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hertha Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holstein Kiel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karlsruher SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Darmstadt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfL Osnabruck	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bochum	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wolfsburg

DDLWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Telstar Europe Friendlies	3-0	3-1	4	0	W
24/07	Lyon Elite Club Friendlies	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Verl Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
11/07	FSV Schoningen Europe Friendlies	4-0	8-2	9	1	W
25/05	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
21/05	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/05	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	9	5	W
09/05	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
03/05	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
25/04	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Kaiserslautern

WWLLLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sudtirol Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
17/07	Mainz Europe Friendlies	0-3	1-4	0	0	L
10/07	Sandhausen Europe Friendlies	1-2	5-3	4	1	W
17/05	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
08/05	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
02/05	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
24/04	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	12	3	L
17/04	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-3	0-3	0	3	L
11/04	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
04/04	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	3-0	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wolfsburg vs Kaiserslautern?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wolfsburg win (56%). Probabilities: Wolfsburg 56%, draw 24%, Kaiserslautern 20%.

How many goals are expected in Wolfsburg vs Kaiserslautern?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Wolfsburg 1.79 · Kaiserslautern 0.98), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wolfsburg vs Kaiserslautern?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.