Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 07/08, 20:30

Prediction: Bochum vs Hertha Berlin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Bochum1.59

Hertha Berlin1.42

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Bochum Draw Hertha Berlin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bochum 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWDWLD

Hertha Berlin 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWWDD

Head-to-head

Bochum 2–3–1 Hertha Berlin (6 last)

Hertha Berlin1-1Bochum
Bochum3-2Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin1-1Bochum
Bochum3-1Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin1-1Bochum
Bochum1-3Hertha Berlin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bochum 1567 · Hertha Berlin 1540

	Bochum	Draw	Hertha Berlin
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bochum: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bochum	Hertha Berlin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	3.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	2.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.31
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +1’	2.25	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:02	2.33	3.62	2.91
14:01	2.31▼	3.58▼	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bochum 2–3–1 Hertha Berlin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Hertha Berlin	1-1 HT 1-0	Bochum
18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Bochum	3-2 HT 2-0	Hertha Berlin
20/05/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Hertha Berlin	1-1 HT 0-0	Bochum
21/01/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Bochum	3-1 HT 2-0	Hertha Berlin
04/02/22 Germany Bundesliga I	Hertha Berlin	1-1 HT 1-0	Bochum
12/09/21 Germany Bundesliga I	Bochum	1-3 HT 0-2	Hertha Berlin

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kaiserslautern	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Magdeburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nurnberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arminia Bielefeld	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dynamo Dresden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eintracht Braunschweig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cottbus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Pauli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Greuther Furth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hannover 96	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hertha Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holstein Kiel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karlsruher SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Darmstadt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfL Osnabruck	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bochum	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bochum	Hertha Berlin
Arminia Bielefeld	1-1 D	1-6 L
Greuther Furth	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bochum (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bochum

WDDWWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sheff Utd Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
25/07	Werder Bremen Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/07	Swansea Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/07	Ajax Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
11/07	Antwerp Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/07	Rot-Weiss Oberhausen Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-2	5	0	W
17/05	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
09/05	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/05	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
26/04	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-1	5	1	W

Hertha Berlin

LLWLWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Cologne Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/07	Mamelodi Sundowns World Club Friendlies	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
17/07	WSG Swarovski Tirol Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
11/07	FC Lok Leipzig Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
08/07	Lichtenberg 47 Europe Friendlies	3-0	9-0	6	0	W
04/07	Frohnauer SC Club Friendly List	3-0	15-0	–	–	W
17/05	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-6	2	3	L
10/05	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
03/05	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
25/04	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bochum vs Hertha Berlin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bochum win (41%). Probabilities: Bochum 41%, draw 26%, Hertha Berlin 33%.

How many goals are expected in Bochum vs Hertha Berlin?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Bochum 1.59 · Hertha Berlin 1.42), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bochum vs Hertha Berlin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.