Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 09/08, 13:30

Prediction: St Pauli vs Greuther Furth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

St Pauli1.97

Greuther Furth1.25

1X2

53% 24% 23%

St Pauli Draw Greuther Furth

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St Pauli 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Greuther Furth 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

St Pauli 3–2–1 Greuther Furth (6 last)

Greuther Furth3-1St Pauli
St Pauli3-2Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth0-0St Pauli
St Pauli2-1Greuther Furth
Greuther Furth2-2St Pauli
St Pauli2-1Greuther Furth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Pauli 1499 · Greuther Furth 1530

	St Pauli	Draw	Greuther Furth
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours St Pauli: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Pauli	Greuther Furth
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	2 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +8’	1.73	3.80	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St Pauli 3–2–1 Greuther Furth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Greuther Furth	3-1 HT 2-0	St Pauli
03/02/24 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	3-2 HT 2-1	Greuther Furth
19/08/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Greuther Furth	0-0 HT 0-0	St Pauli
11/03/23 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	2-1 HT 1-1	Greuther Furth
03/09/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Greuther Furth	2-2 HT 0-1	St Pauli
25/04/21 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	2-1 HT 1-0	Greuther Furth

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kaiserslautern	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Magdeburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nurnberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arminia Bielefeld	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dynamo Dresden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eintracht Braunschweig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cottbus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Pauli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Greuther Furth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hannover 96	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hertha Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holstein Kiel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karlsruher SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Darmstadt	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VfL Osnabruck	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bochum	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St Pauli

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Deportivo La Coruna Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	2-2	8	0	D
24/07	Bournemouth Elite Club Friendlies	1-2	1-4	2	1	L
19/07	HNK Gorica Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	9	0	W
11/07	Babelsberg 03 Europe Friendlies	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
04/07	Kickers Emden Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-1	3	0	W
30/06	Altona 93 Europe Friendlies	3-2	6-2	4	1	W
16/05	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	8	5	L
09/05	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
03/05	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
25/04	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-2	6	1	L

Greuther Furth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	SC Freiburg Club Friendly List	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
25/07	TSG Hoffenheim Club Friendly List	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
18/07	FC Zurich Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-2	3	1	W
11/07	Eintracht Bamberg Club Friendly List	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
08/07	SC Eltersdorf Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	9	1	W
05/07	SpVgg Bayreuth Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/05	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany Bundesliga II Play-Offs	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/05	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany Bundesliga II Play-Offs	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
17/05	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	3-0	2	7	W
10/05	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-2	18	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Pauli vs Greuther Furth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Pauli win (53%). Probabilities: St Pauli 53%, draw 24%, Greuther Furth 23%.

How many goals are expected in St Pauli vs Greuther Furth?

The model expects 3.22 goals (St Pauli 1.97 · Greuther Furth 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St Pauli vs Greuther Furth?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.