Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 08/08, 13:00
Prediction: Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.37Total
Darmstadt1.84
Holstein Kiel1.53
1X2
Darmstadt
Draw
Holstein Kiel
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Darmstadt
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Holstein Kiel
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Darmstadt
3–2–1
Holstein Kiel
(6 last)
- Darmstadt2-0Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel1-1Darmstadt
- Darmstadt1-2Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel0-3Darmstadt
- Darmstadt1-1Holstein Kiel
- Darmstadt3-1Holstein Kiel
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darmstadt 1555 · Holstein Kiel 1473
| Darmstadt | Draw | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darmstadt (rating 1555 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Darmstadt: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Darmstadt | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.6 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/56/22% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Darmstadt 3–2–1 Holstein Kiel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Germany Bundesliga II | Darmstadt | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Holstein Kiel |
| 04/10/25 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Darmstadt |
| 06/01/24 Europe Friendlies | Darmstadt | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Holstein Kiel |
| 30/04/23 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Darmstadt |
| 21/10/22 Germany Bundesliga II | Darmstadt | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Holstein Kiel |
| 02/04/22 Germany Bundesliga II | Darmstadt | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Holstein Kiel |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga II
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heidenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kaiserslautern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Magdeburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nurnberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dynamo Dresden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cottbus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Pauli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Greuther Furth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hannover 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Holstein Kiel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Karlsruher SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Darmstadt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | VfL Osnabruck | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bochum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolfsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darmstadt
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Portsmouth Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 17/07 | FC Astoria Walldorf Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | FC 08 Homburg Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Fehlheim Club Friendly List |
– | 8-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | SG Arheilgen Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 12-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga II |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga II |
2-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Holstein Kiel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | TSG Hoffenheim Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Mainz Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Swansea Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/07 | Al Ahli Jeddah World Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Fredericia Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 17/04 | Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Darmstadt win (44%). Probabilities: Darmstadt 44%, draw 25%, Holstein Kiel 31%.
How many goals are expected in Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel?
The model expects 3.37 goals (Darmstadt 1.84 · Holstein Kiel 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.