Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 14/08, 18:30
Prediction: Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · St Pauli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Holstein Kiel1.72
St Pauli1.52
1X2
Holstein Kiel
Draw
St Pauli
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Holstein Kiel
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
St Pauli
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Holstein Kiel
0–1–5
St Pauli
(6 last)
- Holstein Kiel1-1St Pauli
- Holstein Kiel1-2St Pauli
- St Pauli3-1Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel3-4St Pauli
- St Pauli5-1Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel3-4St Pauli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Holstein Kiel 1488 · St Pauli 1508
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours St Pauli: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Holstein Kiel | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 2.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 1.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Holstein Kiel 0–1–5 St Pauli
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/25 Europe Friendlies | Holstein Kiel | 1-1 HT 0-1 | St Pauli |
| 12/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Holstein Kiel | 1-2 HT 1-1 | St Pauli |
| 29/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | St Pauli | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Holstein Kiel |
| 23/02/24 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 3-4 HT 0-3 | St Pauli |
| 17/09/23 Germany Bundesliga II | St Pauli | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Holstein Kiel |
| 19/05/23 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 3-4 HT 1-1 | St Pauli |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga II
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Cottbus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Heidenheim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Karlsruher SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Hertha Berlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Holstein Kiel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Darmstadt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | St Pauli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Greuther Furth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kaiserslautern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | VfL Osnabruck | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bochum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Magdeburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Holstein Kiel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/07 | TSG Hoffenheim Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Mainz Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Swansea Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/07 | Al Ahli Jeddah World Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Fredericia Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
St Pauli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportivo La Coruna Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 24/07 | Bournemouth Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | HNK Gorica Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Babelsberg 03 Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Kickers Emden Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Altona 93 Europe Friendlies |
3-2 | 6-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Holstein Kiel win (41%). Probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41%, draw 26%, St Pauli 33%.
How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Holstein Kiel 1.72 · St Pauli 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.