Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lugano II vs AC Bellinzona

Team pages: Lugano II · AC Bellinzona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Lugano II1.63

AC Bellinzona1.6

1X2

38% 25% 37%

Lugano II Draw AC Bellinzona

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugano II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLLLW

AC Bellinzona 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Lugano II 0–2 AC Bellinzona (2 last)

AC Bellinzona2-1Lugano II
Lugano II1-6AC Bellinzona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugano II 1477 · AC Bellinzona 1461

	Lugano II	Draw	AC Bellinzona
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AC Bellinzona: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugano II	AC Bellinzona
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.2	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.2	6.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:45 +15’	2.10	3.60	2.80
18:26 +15’	2.38▲	3.60	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +4’	2.47	3.59	2.44
17:04 +97’	2.46▼	3.59	2.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano II 0–0–2 AC Bellinzona

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/22 Europe Friendlies	AC Bellinzona	2-1 HT 0-1	Lugano II
29/06/22 Europe Friendlies	Lugano II	1-6 HT 1-4	AC Bellinzona

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	11	8	2	1	25	12	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	29	13	25
3	FC Bulle	12	7	3	2	27	18	24
4	FC Paradiso	13	7	3	3	26	14	24
5	SC Cham	11	7	1	3	19	14	22
6	FC Grand-Saconnex	12	7	0	5	23	16	21
7	Basel II	13	6	1	6	24	24	19
8	YF Juventus	13	6	1	6	19	20	19
9	FC Amical Saint-Prex	13	6	1	6	18	25	19
10	FC Zurich II	13	5	3	5	23	24	18
11	Breitenrain	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
12	SC Bruhl	13	5	2	6	16	18	17
13	FC Kreuzlingen	12	4	3	5	18	18	15
14	Lugano II	12	4	0	8	19	26	12
15	Young Boys II	12	3	3	6	23	32	12
16	Bavois	12	2	2	8	11	17	8
17	AC Bellinzona	12	2	2	8	9	24	8
18	Lucerne II	12	2	1	9	16	29	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugano II	AC Bellinzona
FC Grand-Saconnex	2-1 W	0-3 L
FC Kreuzlingen	2-3 L	2-1 W
FC Paradiso	0-1 L	0-4 L
SC Cham	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Schaffhausen	1-2 L	0-1 L
Basel II	3-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lugano II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugano II

WLWLWLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
11/10	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
03/10	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/09	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
19/09	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
05/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-1	3-2	2	8	W
23/08	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/08	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-3	–	–	W

AC Bellinzona

LLDLWLDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
10/10	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/10	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-3	0-4	5	7	L
27/09	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	2-2	4	10	D
19/09	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-3	0-4	5	3	L
29/08	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/08	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugano II vs AC Bellinzona?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugano II win (38%). Probabilities: Lugano II 38%, draw 25%, AC Bellinzona 37%.

How many goals are expected in Lugano II vs AC Bellinzona?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Lugano II 1.63 · AC Bellinzona 1.6), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugano II vs AC Bellinzona?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.