Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 05/09, 15:30

Prediction: Breitenrain vs Lucerne II

Team pages: Breitenrain · Lucerne II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

Breitenrain2.22

Lucerne II1.82

1X2

46% 22% 31%

Breitenrain Draw Lucerne II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Breitenrain 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLDWWL

Lucerne II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Breitenrain 3–1–2 Lucerne II (6 last)

Lucerne II2-3Breitenrain
Breitenrain2-3Lucerne II
Lucerne II2-2Breitenrain
Breitenrain3-1Lucerne II
Breitenrain0-2Lucerne II
Lucerne II0-2Breitenrain

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breitenrain 1514 · Lucerne II 1477

	Breitenrain	Draw	Lucerne II
Our model	47%	22%	32%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Breitenrain: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Breitenrain	Lucerne II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	67/0/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.90

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.05
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.26 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +13’	1.95	3.90	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:04	1.85	4.05	3.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Breitenrain 3–1–2 Lucerne II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	2-3	Breitenrain
18/10/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Breitenrain	2-3 HT 1-0	Lucerne II
09/04/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	2-2	Breitenrain
05/10/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Breitenrain	3-1 HT 2-0	Lucerne II
24/02/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Breitenrain	0-2	Lucerne II
13/09/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	0-2 HT 0-2	Breitenrain

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	5	4	1	0	12	5	13
2	FC Schaffhausen	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
3	FC Bulle	5	3	2	0	13	6	11
4	SC Bruhl	5	3	1	1	10	4	10
5	FC Zurich II	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
6	SC Cham	5	3	1	1	7	6	10
7	FC Paradiso	5	2	1	2	10	7	7
8	Breitenrain	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
9	FC Kreuzlingen	5	2	1	2	6	7	7
10	FC Grand-Saconnex	5	2	0	3	12	12	6
11	Basel II	5	2	0	3	10	12	6
12	Lugano II	5	2	0	3	11	17	6
13	FC Amical Saint-Prex	5	2	0	3	6	13	6
14	Bavois	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
15	Lucerne II	5	1	1	3	10	11	4
16	Young Boys II	5	1	1	3	9	14	4
17	YF Juventus	5	1	0	4	6	13	3
18	AC Bellinzona	5	0	1	4	3	8	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breitenrain	Lucerne II
Young Boys II	4-2 W	2-2 D
FC Bulle	2-2 D	2-3 L
FC Zurich II	3-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Breitenrain (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Breitenrain

WLWLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-1	4-2	6	4	W
15/08	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
08/08	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-2	2-2	12	4	D
01/08	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
30/05	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
23/05	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-4	–	–	L
16/05	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
08/05	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
02/05	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	3-1	5	5	W

Lucerne II

WDLWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-2	2-2	10	7	D
22/08	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-4	–	–	L
08/08	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
30/05	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-1	2-3	1	1	L
23/05	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
16/05	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
09/05	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	Vevey Sports 05 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breitenrain vs Lucerne II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Breitenrain win (46%). Probabilities: Breitenrain 46%, draw 22%, Lucerne II 31%.

How many goals are expected in Breitenrain vs Lucerne II?

The model expects 4.04 goals (Breitenrain 2.22 · Lucerne II 1.82), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Breitenrain vs Lucerne II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.