Football · Denmark Division 2 · 31/07, 19:00

Prediction: FC Roskilde vs Naestved

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

FC Roskilde1.59

Naestved1.25

1X2

45% 26% 30%

FC Roskilde Draw Naestved

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Roskilde 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Naestved 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Roskilde 1–1–4 Naestved (6 last)

FC Roskilde0-1Naestved
Naestved0-0FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde2-3Naestved
Naestved1-0FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde1-2Naestved
Naestved1-2FC Roskilde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Roskilde 1491 · Naestved 1525

	FC Roskilde	Draw	Naestved
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Naestved: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Roskilde	Naestved
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:06 +4’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Roskilde 1–1–4 Naestved

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	0-1 HT 0-0	Naestved
17/04/26 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
02/04/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	2-3 HT 1-0	Naestved
01/08/25 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
18/02/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Roskilde	1-2 HT 1-1	Naestved
21/01/23 Europe Friendlies	Naestved	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Roskilde

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	B93 Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fremad Amager	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brabrand	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Roskilde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FA 2000	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hellerup IK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Middelfart	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naestved	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nykobing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Skive	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thisted FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VSK Arhus	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Roskilde	Naestved
HB Køge	0-1 L	2-0 W
AB Copenhagen	1-1 D	4-1 W
Hellerup IK	3-2 W	1-2 L
Thisted FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Vendsyssel FF	1-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Roskilde

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Horsholm-Usserod IK Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-3	4	1	D
18/07	Fremad Amager Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	2	3	D
11/07	HB Køge Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
07/07	AB Copenhagen Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-1	3-2	7	4	W
29/05	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
24/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
16/05	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
13/05	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
08/05	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-1	6	2	W

Naestved

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FC Helsingor Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
18/07	HB Køge Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/07	IFK Varnamo Club Friendly List	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/06	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/05	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	1-1	4-1	4	2	W
23/05	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
16/05	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
09/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	1-3	1-3	2	6	L
01/05	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Roskilde vs Naestved?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Roskilde win (45%). Probabilities: FC Roskilde 45%, draw 26%, Naestved 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Roskilde vs Naestved?

The model expects 2.84 goals (FC Roskilde 1.59 · Naestved 1.25), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Roskilde vs Naestved?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.