Football · Denmark Division 2 · 01/08, 14:00

Prediction: Middelfart vs Thisted FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Middelfart1.98

Thisted FC1

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Middelfart Draw Thisted FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Middelfart 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Thisted FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Middelfart 4–1–1 Thisted FC (6 last)

Middelfart3-2Thisted FC
Thisted FC1-0Middelfart
Middelfart3-0Thisted FC
Thisted FC1-3Middelfart
Thisted FC1-2Middelfart
Middelfart0-0Thisted FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Middelfart 1472 · Thisted FC 1473

	Middelfart	Draw	Thisted FC
Our model	59%	23%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Middelfart: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Middelfart	Thisted FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:05 +10’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Middelfart 4–1–1 Thisted FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/11/24 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	3-2 HT 2-1	Thisted FC
03/08/24 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Middelfart
01/04/24 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	3-0 HT 2-0	Thisted FC
12/08/23 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-3 HT 0-3	Middelfart
27/03/22 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Middelfart
04/09/21 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	0-0 HT 0-0	Thisted FC

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	B93 Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fremad Amager	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brabrand	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Roskilde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FA 2000	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hellerup IK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Middelfart	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naestved	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nykobing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Skive	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thisted FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	VSK Arhus	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Middelfart

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Næsby Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
18/07	VSK Arhus Europe Friendlies	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
14/07	Brabrand Europe Friendlies	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
30/05	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	0-3	2-3	4	0	L
23/05	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	2-2	2-4	2	3	L
16/05	HB Køge Denmark Division 1	0-3	0-4	5	2	L
08/05	AaB Denmark Division 1	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
01/05	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
26/04	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
22/04	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	1-3	1-5	3	3	L

Thisted FC

WWLLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Silkeborg IF Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-6	1	1	L
06/06	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
29/05	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
23/05	Naestved Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
16/05	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
08/05	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
01/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
25/04	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
19/04	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-0	4-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Middelfart vs Thisted FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Middelfart win (59%). Probabilities: Middelfart 59%, draw 23%, Thisted FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Middelfart vs Thisted FC?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Middelfart 1.98 · Thisted FC 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Middelfart vs Thisted FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.