Football · Denmark Division 2 · 15/08, 13:30

Prediction: VSK Arhus vs Thisted FC

Team pages: VSK Arhus · Thisted FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

VSK Arhus1.63

Thisted FC1.18

1X2

47% 26% 27%

VSK Arhus Draw Thisted FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

VSK Arhus 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLDWWW

Thisted FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

VSK Arhus 2–4–0 Thisted FC (6 last)

VSK Arhus0-0Thisted FC
Thisted FC2-2VSK Arhus
VSK Arhus3-2Thisted FC
Thisted FC1-1VSK Arhus
VSK Arhus2-2Thisted FC
VSK Arhus1-0Thisted FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VSK Arhus 1548 · Thisted FC 1462

	VSK Arhus	Draw	Thisted FC
Our model	47%	27%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VSK Arhus (rating 1548 vs 1462).
H2H favours VSK Arhus: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VSK Arhus	Thisted FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	4.00 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.72 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:50 +14’	1.67	3.80	4.00
14:32 +9’	1.90▲	3.60▼	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:41	1.88	3.45	3.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VSK Arhus 2–4–0 Thisted FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Denmark Division 2	VSK Arhus	0-0 HT 0-0	Thisted FC
16/08/25 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	2-2 HT 0-0	VSK Arhus
31/08/21 Denmark Cup	VSK Arhus	3-2 HT 2-2	Thisted FC
30/05/21 Denmark 2. Division Group 1	Thisted FC	1-1 HT 1-0	VSK Arhus
24/10/20 Denmark 2. Division Group 1	VSK Arhus	2-2 HT 1-1	Thisted FC
12/10/19 Denmark 2. Division Group 2	VSK Arhus	1-0 HT 0-0	Thisted FC

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middelfart	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	VSK Arhus	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	Nykobing	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
4	FC Roskilde	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	Skive	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
6	B93 Copenhagen	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
7	FA 2000	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
8	Naestved	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
9	Hellerup IK	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
10	Fremad Amager	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
11	Thisted FC	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
12	Brabrand	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VSK Arhus	Thisted FC
Hellerup IK	2-0 W	2-0 W
Middelfart	0-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

VSK Arhus

DDLWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
04/08	TST Fodbold Denmark Cup	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
01/08	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
21/07	Brabrand Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/07	Middelfart Europe Friendlies	0-3	0-3	3	2	L
06/06	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 2	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
30/05	Ishoj Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
23/05	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/05	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
13/05	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	7	1	D

Thisted FC

LLWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
04/08	Aabybro IF Denmark Cup	6-1	9-1	–	–	W
01/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-3	1-4	4	1	L
11/07	Silkeborg IF Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-6	1	1	L
06/06	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
29/05	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
23/05	Naestved Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
16/05	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
08/05	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VSK Arhus vs Thisted FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VSK Arhus win (47%). Probabilities: VSK Arhus 47%, draw 26%, Thisted FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in VSK Arhus vs Thisted FC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (VSK Arhus 1.63 · Thisted FC 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VSK Arhus vs Thisted FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.