Football · Denmark Division 2 · 25/09, 19:00

Prediction: Hellerup IK vs FC Roskilde

Team pages: Hellerup IK · FC Roskilde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Hellerup IK1.11

FC Roskilde2.22

1X2

17% 21% 62%

Hellerup IK Draw FC Roskilde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hellerup IK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLWLL

FC Roskilde 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Hellerup IK 0–1–5 FC Roskilde (6 last)

FC Roskilde3-2Hellerup IK
Hellerup IK1-2FC Roskilde
Hellerup IK0-2FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde4-1Hellerup IK
FC Roskilde2-2Hellerup IK
Hellerup IK0-2FC Roskilde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hellerup IK 1436 · FC Roskilde 1628

	Hellerup IK	Draw	FC Roskilde
Our model	17%	21%	62%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Roskilde (rating 1436 vs 1628).
H2H favours FC Roskilde: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hellerup IK	FC Roskilde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.20

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.79 ★
X	3.75 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.39
2	1.65 → 1.45▼	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +3’	4.10	3.75	1.65
20:10 +2’	5.25▲	4.00▲	1.48▼
07:02 +4’	4.75▼	4.00	1.53▲
10:43 +26’	5.25▲	4.20▲	1.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:37 +35’	5.40	4.19	1.50
14:03 +5’	5.38▼	4.12▼	1.51▲
19:01 +25’	5.16▼	4.03▼	1.54▲
01:17 +50’	5.11▼	3.99▼	1.55▲
05:12 +55’	5.11	4.02▲	1.54▼
08:57 +10’	5.15▲	4.21▲	1.51▼
11:02 +7’	5.79▲	4.41▲	1.44▼
11:13 +75’	5.79	4.40▼	1.44
13:14 +32’	5.79	4.39▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hellerup IK 0–1–5 FC Roskilde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	3-2 HT 0-1	Hellerup IK
08/05/26 Denmark Division 2	Hellerup IK	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
13/03/26 Denmark Division 2	Hellerup IK	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
26/09/25 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	4-1 HT 3-1	Hellerup IK
19/07/25 Europe Friendlies	FC Roskilde	2-2 HT 0-1	Hellerup IK
05/08/24 Denmark Cup	Hellerup IK	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	8	6	2	0	23	9	20
2	VSK Arhus	8	4	3	1	13	5	15
3	FC Roskilde	8	3	5	0	15	9	14
4	Middelfart	8	3	4	1	15	8	13
5	Naestved	8	3	4	1	11	9	13
6	Fremad Amager	8	2	5	1	11	11	11
6	Skive	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
8	B93 Copenhagen	8	2	3	3	12	13	9
9	Hellerup IK	8	2	1	5	7	15	7
10	Brabrand	8	1	2	5	9	17	5
11	FA 2000	8	1	2	5	9	19	5
12	Thisted FC	8	1	1	6	8	18	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hellerup IK	FC Roskilde
Nykobing	0-3 L	2-2 D
Fremad Amager	1-2 L	1-1 D
Brabrand	2-1 W	1-1 D
Middelfart	1-2 L	1-1 D
B93 Copenhagen	0-3 L	2-1 W
FA 2000	2-1 W	5-1 W
Naestved	1-1 D	2-2 D
VSK Arhus	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Roskilde (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hellerup IK

WLLDWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
11/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
05/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-2	1-2	5	0	L
21/08	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
14/08	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	Naestved Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
01/08	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
06/06	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
30/05	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 2	1-2	4-3	4	3	W

FC Roskilde

WWDWDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	2-0	5-1	5	3	W
13/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
28/08	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
21/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	0	0	D
07/08	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
31/07	Naestved Denmark Division 2	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
06/06	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-1	3-2	7	4	W
29/05	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	2-1	2-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hellerup IK vs FC Roskilde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Roskilde win (62%). Probabilities: Hellerup IK 17%, draw 21%, FC Roskilde 62%.

How many goals are expected in Hellerup IK vs FC Roskilde?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Hellerup IK 1.11 · FC Roskilde 2.22), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hellerup IK vs FC Roskilde?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.