Football · Spain Primera Women · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: Barcelona (W) vs Tenerife (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Barcelona (W)2.67

Tenerife (W)0.67

1X2

85% 11% 5%

Barcelona (W) Draw Tenerife (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Tenerife (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDLDW

Head-to-head

Barcelona (W) 6–0 Tenerife (W) (6 last)

Tenerife (W)1-3Barcelona (W)
Barcelona (W)2-0Tenerife (W)
Tenerife (W)0-2Barcelona (W)
Tenerife (W)2-6Barcelona (W)
Barcelona (W)5-1Tenerife (W)
Barcelona (W)7-0Tenerife (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona (W) 1685 · Tenerife (W) 1550

	Barcelona (W)	Draw	Tenerife (W)
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	89%	7%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (W) (rating 1685 vs 1550).
H2H favours Barcelona (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona (W)	Tenerife (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.8 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.9	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.05

X13.00

229.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.25)1.98

2 (+3.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.05 → 1.05	Bet365 1.05
X	13.00 → 13.00	Pinn 17.61 ★
2	29.00 → 29.00	Bet365 29.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +8’	1.05	13.00	29.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:03 +20’	1.03	17.61	24.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona (W) 6–0–0 Tenerife (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Primera Women	Tenerife (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Barcelona (W)
06/12/25 Spain Primera Women	Barcelona (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Tenerife (W)
15/03/25 Spain Primera Women	Tenerife (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona (W)
21/12/24 Spain Copa De La Reina	Tenerife (W)	2-6 HT 2-2	Barcelona (W)
24/11/24 Spain Primera Women	Barcelona (W)	5-1 HT 3-1	Tenerife (W)
17/03/24 Spain Primera Women	Barcelona (W)	7-0 HT 6-0	Tenerife (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EDF Logrono (W)	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Eibar (W)	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Sevilla (W)	1	1	0	1	0	3
4	Athletic Bilbao (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Atletico Madrid (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Tenerife (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Alaves (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC Badalona (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Barcelona (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Granada (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Madrid CFF (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Valencia (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	1	0	1	0	1	0
14	Espanyol (W)	1	0	1	0	1	0
16	Real Sociedad (W)	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona (W)	Tenerife (W)
Madrid CFF (W)	4-0 W	2-0 W
Levante UD (W)	5-0 W	4-0 W
Real Madrid (W)	3-0 W	0-2 L
Deportivo La Coruna (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Granada (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	4-0	5	0	W
27/05	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	2-1	4	1	W
10/05	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
06/05	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	5-0	11	1	W
22/04	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
06/04	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	6-0	10	1	W
29/03	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	3-0	12	2	W
21/03	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	4-0	7-1	3	2	W
15/03	Deportivo La Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
21/02	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-0	15	1	W

Tenerife (W)

LWWWDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Deportivo La Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
01/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
26/04	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	3-0	3-0	11	3	W
03/04	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/03	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
22/03	EDF Logrono (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
14/03	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
22/02	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-2	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona (W) vs Tenerife (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Barcelona (W) 85%, draw 11%, Tenerife (W) 5%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona (W) vs Tenerife (W)?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Barcelona (W) 2.67 · Tenerife (W) 0.67), with a 61% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona (W) vs Tenerife (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.