Football · Spain Primera Women · 30/08, 21:00

Prediction: Real Madrid (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Real Madrid (W)1.91

Atletico Madrid (W)0.95

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Real Madrid (W) Draw Atletico Madrid (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWWW

Atletico Madrid (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLDL

Head-to-head

Real Madrid (W) 3–1–2 Atletico Madrid (W) (6 last)

Real Madrid (W)1-0Atletico Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)3-1Atletico Madrid (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)2-1Real Madrid (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)1-2Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)1-1Atletico Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)2-3Atletico Madrid (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid (W) 1609 · Atletico Madrid (W) 1521

	Real Madrid (W)	Draw	Atletico Madrid (W)
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (W) (rating 1609 vs 1521).
H2H favours Real Madrid (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid (W)	Atletico Madrid (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.4	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.54 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.07
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +4’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:32 +5’	1.54	4.07	5.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid (W) 3–1–2 Atletico Madrid (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
20/01/26 Spain Super Cup Women	Real Madrid (W)	3-1 HT 3-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
05/09/25 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Real Madrid (W)
05/01/25 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Madrid (W)
13/10/24 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
11/05/24 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EDF Logrono (W)	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Eibar (W)	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Sevilla (W)	1	1	0	1	0	3
4	Athletic Bilbao (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Atletico Madrid (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Tenerife (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Alaves (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC Badalona (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Barcelona (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Granada (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Madrid CFF (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Valencia (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	1	0	1	0	1	0
14	Espanyol (W)	1	0	1	0	1	0
16	Real Sociedad (W)	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid (W)	Atletico Madrid (W)
FC Badalona (W)	4-0 W	4-2 W
Sevilla (W)	2-0 W	1-2 L
EDF Logrono (W)	1-1 D	5-0 W
Eibar (W)	1-0 W	4-0 W
Real Sociedad (W)	3-0 W	0-2 L
Tenerife (W)	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid (W)

WWWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
26/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	4	1	W
10/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/04	EDF Logrono (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
05/04	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/03	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-3	0	2	L
22/03	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
14/03	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
22/02	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	7	2	W

Atletico Madrid (W)

LWWWWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
10/05	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
03/05	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	6	1	W
25/04	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	4-2	4	3	W
05/04	Deportivo La Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
29/03	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-1	0	8	W
22/03	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
14/03	EDF Logrono (W) Spain Primera Women	3-0	5-0	7	2	W
22/02	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Real Madrid (W) 59%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid (W) 18%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Real Madrid (W) 1.91 · Atletico Madrid (W) 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.