Football · Spain Primera Women · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Real Sociedad (W) vs EDF Logrono (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Real Sociedad (W)2.18

EDF Logrono (W)0.65

1X2

73% 18% 10%

Real Sociedad (W) Draw EDF Logrono (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWLW

EDF Logrono (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWWLL

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad (W) 4–2–0 EDF Logrono (W) (6 last)

EDF Logrono (W)1-1Real Sociedad (W)
Real Sociedad (W)1-1EDF Logrono (W)
EDF Logrono (W)0-1Real Sociedad (W)
Real Sociedad (W)4-0EDF Logrono (W)
Real Sociedad (W)3-1EDF Logrono (W)
EDF Logrono (W)0-2Real Sociedad (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad (W) 1529 · EDF Logrono (W) 1487

	Real Sociedad (W)	Draw	EDF Logrono (W)
Our model	72%	19%	9%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad (W) (rating 1529 vs 1487).
H2H favours Real Sociedad (W): 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad (W)	EDF Logrono (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.3	0.8 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:37 +9’	1.25	5.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad (W) 4–2–0 EDF Logrono (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Women’s Friendly	EDF Logrono (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad (W)
29/03/26 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	EDF Logrono (W)
06/09/25 Spain Primera Women	EDF Logrono (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad (W)
01/08/25 Women’s Friendly	Real Sociedad (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	EDF Logrono (W)
17/04/21 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	3-1 HT 2-1	EDF Logrono (W)
11/11/20 Spain Primera Women	EDF Logrono (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	EDF Logrono (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Badalona (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Granada (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Madrid CFF (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eibar (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad (W)	EDF Logrono (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)	2-0 W	0-5 L
Madrid CFF (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Levante UD (W)	1-0 W	4-1 W
Real Madrid (W)	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EDF Logrono (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad (W)

WLWDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/05	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
09/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/05	Deportivo La Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
26/04	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	13	5	W
04/04	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	3-1	5-1	8	2	W
29/03	EDF Logrono (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
21/03	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
14/03	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
22/02	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-1	9	2	W

EDF Logrono (W)

LLLDWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
26/05	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
10/05	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
02/05	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
26/04	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	1-1	2	0	D
04/04	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/03	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
22/03	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-1	0	4	L
14/03	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
21/02	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	2-3	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad (W) vs EDF Logrono (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad (W) 73%, draw 18%, EDF Logrono (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad (W) vs EDF Logrono (W)?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Real Sociedad (W) 2.18 · EDF Logrono (W) 0.65), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad (W) vs EDF Logrono (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.