Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: Conquense vs RSD Alcala

Team pages: Conquense · RSD Alcala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Conquense1.85

RSD Alcala0.92

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Conquense Draw RSD Alcala

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Conquense 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWDW

RSD Alcala 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLDDL

Head-to-head

Conquense 1–1–1 RSD Alcala (3 last)

Conquense2-1RSD Alcala
RSD Alcala2-1Conquense
RSD Alcala0-0Conquense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Conquense 1574 · RSD Alcala 1457

	Conquense	Draw	RSD Alcala
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Conquense (rating 1574 vs 1457).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Conquense	RSD Alcala
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +9’	1.55	3.60	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Conquense 1–1–1 RSD Alcala

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Conquense	2-1 HT 1-0	RSD Alcala
14/09/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	RSD Alcala	2-1 HT 2-0	Conquense
19/08/21 Europe Friendlies	RSD Alcala	0-0 HT 0-0	Conquense

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Conquense	8	5	2	1	18	9	17
2	UD San Sebastian Reyes	8	5	1	2	13	8	16
3	CF Talavera	8	4	3	1	11	7	15
4	Valladolid Promesas	8	4	2	2	18	10	14
5	Atletico Madrid C	8	4	2	2	11	9	14
6	Numancia	8	3	4	1	8	4	13
7	Salamanca CF UDS	8	4	1	3	12	10	13
8	Navalcarnero	8	3	3	2	13	12	12
9	Gimnastica Segoviana	8	2	4	2	14	13	10
10	Atletico Tordesillas	8	2	3	3	12	11	9
11	CD Atletico Paso	8	2	3	3	9	9	9
12	CD Guadalajara	8	2	3	3	16	17	9
13	Albacete B	8	2	3	3	11	22	9
14	RSD Alcala	8	2	2	4	11	12	8
15	Real Avila	8	2	1	5	7	14	7
16	Calvo Sotelo	8	1	3	4	5	12	6
17	Getafe B	8	0	5	3	8	13	5
18	Real Madrid C	8	0	5	3	1	6	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Conquense	RSD Alcala
Real Madrid C	2-0 W	0-0 D
Navalcarnero	3-1 W	1-3 L
Salamanca CF UDS	1-0 W	0-3 L
Gimnastica Segoviana	2-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Conquense (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Conquense

WWDWWWLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/10	CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
04/10	Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
27/09	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
20/09	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
13/09	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
06/09	Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
03/05	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/04	Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

RSD Alcala

DLWLWLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
18/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/10	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
04/10	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
27/09	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	0-3	3	9	L
20/09	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-2	5-2	3	8	W
13/09	CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
06/09	CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	3-0	3	5	W
03/05	CD Coria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-2	1-2	11	10	L
26/04	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Conquense vs RSD Alcala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Conquense win (58%). Probabilities: Conquense 58%, draw 25%, RSD Alcala 17%.

How many goals are expected in Conquense vs RSD Alcala?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Conquense 1.85 · RSD Alcala 0.92), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Conquense vs RSD Alcala?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.