Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 08/11, 10:15

Prediction: Hradec Kralove B vs Zenit Caslav

Team pages: Hradec Kralove B · Zenit Caslav

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Hradec Kralove B1.71

Zenit Caslav1.1

1X2

51% 24% 24%

Hradec Kralove B Draw Zenit Caslav

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hradec Kralove B 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLLLWL

Zenit Caslav 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLLDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hradec Kralove B 1452 · Zenit Caslav 1507

	Hradec Kralove B	Draw	Zenit Caslav
Our model	50%	26%	23%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zenit Caslav (rating 1452 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hradec Kralove B	Zenit Caslav
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.75
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	4.00 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.81 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +22’	1.61	4.00	4.00
15:30 +6’	1.73▲	3.90▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:45 +45’	1.71	3.96	3.81
15:39 +19’	1.75▲	3.78▼	3.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Unicov	16	10	3	3	36	24	33
2	Frydek Mistek	15	9	3	3	27	14	30
2	SK Artis Brno B	16	8	6	2	27	14	30
4	FC Brno II	16	9	3	4	36	27	30
5	Sigma Olomouc B	15	9	1	5	33	18	28
6	SK Hranice	16	7	2	7	20	22	23
7	TJ Unie Hlubina	15	6	4	5	33	30	22
8	MFK Vitkovice	15	6	4	5	21	18	22
9	Slovacko II	15	6	3	6	25	19	21
10	CSK Uhersky Brod	15	6	3	6	25	25	21
11	FK Hodonin	15	6	2	7	21	18	20
12	MFK Karvina B	15	6	2	7	25	25	20
13	FC Trinity Zlin B	15	5	4	6	19	23	19
14	SFK Vrchovina	15	5	2	8	17	32	17
15	FK Blansko	15	3	5	7	21	33	14
16	Polanka	15	3	3	9	16	27	12
17	MFK Havirov	15	2	5	8	12	24	11
18	FC Vsetin	15	3	1	11	12	33	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hradec Kralove B	Zenit Caslav
Slovan Liberec B	1-2 L	0-0 D
Varnsdorf	1-2 L	2-2 D
Mladá Boleslav B	0-1 L	0-4 L
FK Jablonec B	2-1 W	2-3 L
SK Sokol Zapy	1-2 L	3-2 W
Velke Hamry	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Neratovice-Byskovice	0-0 D	2-0 W
FK Horni Redice	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zenit Caslav (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hradec Kralove B

LDDLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
25/10	Banik Most-Sous Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
18/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
11/10	Varnsdorf Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
04/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
27/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
20/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
06/09	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Zenit Caslav

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Varnsdorf Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
28/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
24/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
18/10	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
11/10	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	3-2	0	1	W
04/10	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
26/09	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
20/09	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
12/09	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	8	6	D
06/09	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hradec Kralove B vs Zenit Caslav?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hradec Kralove B win (51%). Probabilities: Hradec Kralove B 51%, draw 24%, Zenit Caslav 24%.

How many goals are expected in Hradec Kralove B vs Zenit Caslav?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Hradec Kralove B 1.71 · Zenit Caslav 1.1), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hradec Kralove B vs Zenit Caslav?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.