Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 14/11, 10:15

Prediction: Pardubice B vs Varnsdorf

Team pages: Pardubice B · Varnsdorf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Pardubice B2.16

Varnsdorf1.51

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Pardubice B Draw Varnsdorf

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Pardubice B 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLWWLD

Varnsdorf 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Pardubice B 0–2–0 Varnsdorf (2 last)

Pardubice B1-1Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf1-1Pardubice B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pardubice B 1523 · Varnsdorf 1482

	Pardubice B	Draw	Varnsdorf
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	52%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pardubice B (rating 1523 vs 1482).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pardubice B	Varnsdorf
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	2.8 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:54 +9’	1.73	4.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pardubice B 0–2–0 Varnsdorf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Czechia 3. Liga	Pardubice B	1-1 HT 1-0	Varnsdorf
24/08/25 Czechia 3. Liga	Varnsdorf	1-1 HT 1-1	Pardubice B

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frydek Mistek	16	10	3	3	30	15	33
2	SK Unicov	16	10	3	3	36	24	33
3	Sigma Olomouc B	16	10	1	5	35	18	31
4	SK Artis Brno B	16	8	6	2	27	14	30
5	FC Brno II	16	9	3	4	36	27	30
6	FK Hodonin	16	7	2	7	25	18	23
7	TJ Unie Hlubina	16	6	5	5	34	31	23
8	MFK Karvina B	16	7	2	7	28	25	23
9	MFK Vitkovice	16	6	5	5	22	19	23
10	SK Hranice	16	7	2	7	20	22	23
11	Slovacko II	16	6	4	6	26	20	22
12	CSK Uhersky Brod	16	6	3	7	26	27	21
13	FC Trinity Zlin B	16	5	4	7	20	26	19
14	FK Blansko	16	4	5	7	23	34	17
15	SFK Vrchovina	16	5	2	9	17	34	17
16	MFK Havirov	16	2	6	8	13	25	12
17	Polanka	16	3	3	10	16	31	12
18	FC Vsetin	16	3	1	12	12	36	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pardubice B	Varnsdorf
Mladá Boleslav B	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Jablonec B	1-2 L	0-2 L
SK Sokol Zapy	4-0 W	4-4 D
SK Sokol Brozany	1-0 W	3-2 W
Slovan Liberec B	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Teplice B	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pardubice B (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pardubice B

DDWLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	2-2	7	1	D
01/11	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
25/10	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	4-0	4	0	W
18/10	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	6-0	5	3	W
10/10	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
26/09	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
20/09	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
16/09	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
11/09	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	10	6	D
06/09	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	7	3	D

Varnsdorf

DLDDWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
01/11	Zenit Caslav Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
28/10	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/10	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	6	6	W
17/10	Banik Most-Sous Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/10	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	2	W
07/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	15	6	D
20/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	4-4	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pardubice B vs Varnsdorf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pardubice B win (52%). Probabilities: Pardubice B 52%, draw 22%, Varnsdorf 26%.

How many goals are expected in Pardubice B vs Varnsdorf?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Pardubice B 2.16 · Varnsdorf 1.51), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pardubice B vs Varnsdorf?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.