Football · Malta Premier League · 08/11, 11:00
Prediction: Birkirkara vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Team pages: Birkirkara · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Birkirkara1.39
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0.92
1X2
Birkirkara
Draw
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Birkirkara
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birkirkara
5–1
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
(6 last)
- Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-2Birkirkara
- Birkirkara2-1Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Birkirkara1-0Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Birkirkara2-1Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Birkirkara0-3Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
- Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0-2Birkirkara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birkirkara 1509 · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 1500
| Birkirkara | Draw | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Birkirkara: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birkirkara | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.2 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birkirkara 5–0–1 Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/26 Malta Premier League | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birkirkara |
| 18/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Birkirkara | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 11/04/26 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 04/03/26 Malta FA Trophy | Birkirkara | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 21/02/26 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
| 03/10/25 Malta Premier League | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birkirkara |
Standings · Malta Premier League · Premier League 26/27, Opening Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk FC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | Sliema Wanderers | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Hamrun Spartans | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Floriana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 16 |
| 6 | Hibernians | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| 7 | Birkirkara | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| 8 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 14 |
| 9 | Mosta FC | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 10 | Balzan FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 11 | Birzebbuga | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 6 |
| 12 | Gzira United | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birkirkara | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar |
|---|---|---|
| Birzebbuga | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Balzan FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Floriana | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Marsaxlokk FC | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Hibernians | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Sliema Wanderers | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Mosta FC | 0-1 L | 5-0 W |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Saint Patrick FC Zabbar (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birkirkara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 25/10 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 22/10 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 16/10 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 18/09 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 26/10 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/10 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/09 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/09 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birkirkara vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Birkirkara win (48%). Probabilities: Birkirkara 48%, draw 27%, Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 25%.
How many goals are expected in Birkirkara vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Birkirkara 1.39 · Saint Patrick FC Zabbar 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Birkirkara vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.