Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Spisska Nova Ves vs MFK Kezmarok

Team pages: Spisska Nova Ves · MFK Kezmarok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Spisska Nova Ves2.73

MFK Kezmarok0.73

1X2

84% 11% 6%

Spisska Nova Ves Draw MFK Kezmarok

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spisska Nova Ves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLWLLL

MFK Kezmarok 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Spisska Nova Ves 1–1 MFK Kezmarok (2 last)

Spisska Nova Ves1-3MFK Kezmarok
MFK Kezmarok0-2Spisska Nova Ves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spisska Nova Ves 1471 · MFK Kezmarok 1398

	Spisska Nova Ves	Draw	MFK Kezmarok
Our model	79%	15%	7%
Market	88%	8%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spisska Nova Ves (rating 1471 vs 1398).
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spisska Nova Ves	MFK Kezmarok
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	0.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.3 / 8.3	0.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.7	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.07

X12.00

221.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.85

2 (+3)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07
X	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
2	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +8’	1.07	12.00	21.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Spisska Nova Ves 1–0–1 MFK Kezmarok

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	Spisska Nova Ves	1-3 HT 0-1	MFK Kezmarok
09/08/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	MFK Kezmarok	0-2 HT 0-2	Spisska Nova Ves

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lokomotiva Kosice	11	7	3	1	18	4	24
2	Ofk-Sim Raslavice	11	7	1	3	17	13	22
3	Spartak Medzev	11	7	1	3	24	16	22
4	MFK Stara Lubovna	11	6	3	2	24	13	21
5	Partizan Bardejov	11	6	1	4	21	19	19
6	Odeva Lipany	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
7	Spisska Nova Ves	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
8	FK Poprad	11	5	1	5	18	15	16
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	11	4	2	5	16	14	14
10	MFK Snina	11	3	5	3	11	13	14
11	Slavia TU Kosice	11	4	1	6	21	21	13
12	MFK Vranov nad Toplou	11	4	1	6	12	25	13
13	Slovan Sabinov	11	1	3	7	3	17	6
14	MFK Kezmarok	11	0	1	10	6	29	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spisska Nova Ves	MFK Kezmarok
MFK Snina	1-2 L	0-3 L
Spartak Medzev	1-2 L	1-3 L
Ofk-Sim Raslavice	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Poprad	2-0 W	0-2 L
Partizan Bardejov	0-1 L	3-4 L
MFK Stara Lubovna	2-2 D	1-3 L
Slavia TU Kosice	2-1 W	1-3 L
Slovan Sabinov	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Spisska Nova Ves (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spisska Nova Ves

WWDLWLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	MFK Snina Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
10/10	Spartak Medzev Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/10	Ofk-Sim Raslavice Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	11	5	L
26/09	FK Poprad Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	7	W
19/09	Odeva Lipany Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	MSK Tesla Stropkov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Partizan Bardejov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Slovan Sabinov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

MFK Kezmarok

LLLLLLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
11/10	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
03/10	Slovan Sabinov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
26/09	MFK Vranov nad Toplou Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
19/09	FC Lokomotiva Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Partizan Bardejov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
06/09	MFK Snina Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	8	7	L
29/08	Spartak Medzev Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Ofk-Sim Raslavice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	FK Poprad Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spisska Nova Ves vs MFK Kezmarok?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spisska Nova Ves win (84%). Probabilities: Spisska Nova Ves 84%, draw 11%, MFK Kezmarok 6%.

How many goals are expected in Spisska Nova Ves vs MFK Kezmarok?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Spisska Nova Ves 2.73 · MFK Kezmarok 0.73), with a 59% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Spisska Nova Ves vs MFK Kezmarok?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.