Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 25/07, 04:00

Prediction: CSD Municipal vs Deportivo Mixco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

CSD Municipal2.07

Deportivo Mixco0.88

1X2

64% 22% 14%

CSD Municipal Draw Deportivo Mixco

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

CSD Municipal 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Deportivo Mixco 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLWLL

Head-to-head

CSD Municipal 4–2 Deportivo Mixco (6 last)

CSD Municipal5-0Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco0-2CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal3-0Deportivo Mixco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSD Municipal 1605 · Deportivo Mixco 1497

	CSD Municipal	Draw	Deportivo Mixco
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1605 vs 1497).
H2H favours CSD Municipal: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSD Municipal	Deportivo Mixco
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.10

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.25
2	7.00 → 6.25▼	Pinn 7.29 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +1’	1.36	4.20	7.00
15:07 +3’	1.40▲	4.10▼	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +1’	1.39	4.25	7.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CSD Municipal 4–0–2 Deportivo Mixco

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	5-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Mixco
06/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	0-2 HT 0-0	CSD Municipal
26/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	3-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Mixco
04/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	1-0 HT 1-0	CSD Municipal
09/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	1-0 HT 1-0	CSD Municipal
04/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	3-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo Mixco

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aurora	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guastatoya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malacateco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Marquense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Suchitepequez	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CSD Comunicaciones	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coban Imperial	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CSD Municipal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Xelaju	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Mixco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo San Pedro	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSD Municipal	Deportivo Mixco
Xelaju	2-1 W	3-1 W
Marquense	3-1 W	2-1 W
CSD Comunicaciones	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSD Municipal

LWWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
17/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
10/05	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	5-0	5	8	W
06/05	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/05	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/05	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
26/04	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
19/04	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-1	1	5	W
16/04	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	9	10	W
12/04	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	3	9	L

Deportivo Mixco

LWWDWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-5	4	8	L
06/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
02/05	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	9	11	W
29/04	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
26/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
19/04	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	4-0	2	2	W
17/04	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
11/04	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
07/04	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
03/04	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSD Municipal vs Deportivo Mixco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSD Municipal win (64%). Probabilities: CSD Municipal 64%, draw 22%, Deportivo Mixco 14%.

How many goals are expected in CSD Municipal vs Deportivo Mixco?

The model expects 2.95 goals (CSD Municipal 2.07 · Deportivo Mixco 0.88), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSD Municipal vs Deportivo Mixco?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.