Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 21/10, 18:30

Prediction: MSK Senec vs TJ Kovo Belusa

Team pages: MSK Senec · TJ Kovo Belusa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

MSK Senec1.23

TJ Kovo Belusa1.51

1X2

31% 26% 43%

MSK Senec Draw TJ Kovo Belusa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MSK Senec 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLLLW

TJ Kovo Belusa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDDDDL

Head-to-head

MSK Senec 1–1–0 TJ Kovo Belusa (2 last)

TJ Kovo Belusa1-1MSK Senec
MSK Senec1-0TJ Kovo Belusa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MSK Senec 1448 · TJ Kovo Belusa 1508

	MSK Senec	Draw	TJ Kovo Belusa
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TJ Kovo Belusa (rating 1448 vs 1508).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MSK Senec	TJ Kovo Belusa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.70

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.21 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +6’	2.50	3.75	2.25
10:54 +8’	2.88▲	3.70▼	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:42 +20’	2.99	3.29	2.05
09:58 +5’	3.10▲	3.34▲	1.99▼
16:34 +28’	3.15▲	3.39▲	2.00▲
18:01 +2’	2.73▼	3.40▲	2.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MSK Senec 1–1–0 TJ Kovo Belusa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	1-1 HT 0-1	MSK Senec
22/08/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	MSK Senec	1-0 HT 1-0	TJ Kovo Belusa

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nitra	11	10	1	0	40	9	31
2	OFK Dunajska Luzna	11	6	3	2	15	9	21
3	Puchov	11	5	4	2	19	8	19
4	Spartak Myjava	11	5	3	3	20	14	18
5	TJ Kovo Belusa	11	4	5	2	22	16	17
6	SK 1923 Gabcikovo	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
7	FC Banik Prievidza	11	5	1	5	19	18	16
8	FK Nove Zamky	11	4	3	4	13	18	15
9	Dunajska Streda B	11	4	2	5	21	18	14
10	AS Trencin B	11	4	2	5	23	22	14
11	KFC Komarno B	11	4	2	5	14	23	14
12	MSK Senec	11	4	0	7	10	20	12
13	OK Castkovce	11	3	2	6	18	25	11
14	Raca Bratislava	11	2	4	5	13	24	10
15	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	11	2	3	6	15	29	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šala	11	1	3	7	8	19	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MSK Senec	TJ Kovo Belusa
FK Nove Zamky	1-0 W	0-0 D
Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	1-3 L	2-2 D
Spartak Myjava	0-1 L	0-0 D
Puchov	0-5 L	0-2 L
OFK Dunajska Luzna	1-0 W	2-2 D
KFC Komarno B	1-2 L	5-0 W
Raca Bratislava	0-1 L	4-2 W
Slovan Duslo Šala	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: TJ Kovo Belusa (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MSK Senec

WLLLLWLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/10	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
02/10	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
18/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
04/09	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	10	L
29/08	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
21/08	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
15/08	FC Banik Prievidza Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

TJ Kovo Belusa

WWWDLDDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Nitra Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	2-4	3	1	L
11/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
04/10	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
27/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
20/09	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
06/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
30/08	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	9	3	W
23/08	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	4	W
15/08	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MSK Senec vs TJ Kovo Belusa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TJ Kovo Belusa win (43%). Probabilities: MSK Senec 31%, draw 26%, TJ Kovo Belusa 43%.

How many goals are expected in MSK Senec vs TJ Kovo Belusa?

The model expects 2.74 goals (MSK Senec 1.23 · TJ Kovo Belusa 1.51), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MSK Senec vs TJ Kovo Belusa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.