Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 20/09, 17:00
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Lebedyn
Team pages: Shakhtar Donetsk · LNZ Lebedyn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.09Total
Shakhtar Donetsk1.44
LNZ Lebedyn0.64
1X2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Draw
LNZ Lebedyn
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Shakhtar Donetsk
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
LNZ Lebedyn
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shakhtar Donetsk
3–1–2
LNZ Lebedyn
(6 last)
- LNZ Lebedyn2-2Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk0-1LNZ Lebedyn
- Shakhtar Donetsk1-4LNZ Lebedyn
- LNZ Lebedyn1-4Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk5-1LNZ Lebedyn
- LNZ Lebedyn0-3Shakhtar Donetsk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shakhtar Donetsk 1601 · LNZ Lebedyn 1516
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | LNZ Lebedyn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 29% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shakhtar Donetsk (rating 1601 vs 1516).
- H2H favours Shakhtar Donetsk: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shakhtar Donetsk | LNZ Lebedyn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.4 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1–2 LNZ Lebedyn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | LNZ Lebedyn | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 10/02/26 Club Friendly List | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0-1 HT 0-0 | LNZ Lebedyn |
| 05/10/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-4 HT 0-1 | LNZ Lebedyn |
| 11/04/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | LNZ Lebedyn | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 06/10/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5-1 HT 2-0 | LNZ Lebedyn |
| 27/04/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | LNZ Lebedyn | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kiev | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Kharkiv | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Lebedyn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | FC Zorya Lugansk | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 9 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Chernomorets Odessa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | FC Veres Rivne | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 13 | FC Livyi Bereh | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Obolon Kyiv | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | FC Kudrivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shakhtar Donetsk | LNZ Lebedyn |
|---|---|---|
| Chernomorets Odessa | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Karpaty Lviv | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| FC Kudrivka | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Obolon Kyiv | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| SC Poltava | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Shakhtar Donetsk (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shakhtar Donetsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | SC Poltava Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
LNZ Lebedyn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 10/08 | Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | SC Poltava Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Lebedyn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shakhtar Donetsk win (57%). Probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, draw 26%, LNZ Lebedyn 17%.
How many goals are expected in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Lebedyn?
The model expects 2.09 goals (Shakhtar Donetsk 1.44 · LNZ Lebedyn 0.64), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Lebedyn?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.