Football · Austria 2. Liga · 11/09, 18:30

Prediction: Admira Wacker vs SV Kapfenberg

Team pages: Admira Wacker · SV Kapfenberg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Admira Wacker1.81

SV Kapfenberg1.07

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Admira Wacker Draw SV Kapfenberg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Admira Wacker 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLWLW

SV Kapfenberg 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Admira Wacker 5–1 SV Kapfenberg (6 last)

Admira Wacker6-1SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg0-2Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker2-0SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg3-4Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker0-1SV Kapfenberg
Admira Wacker1-0SV Kapfenberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Admira Wacker 1465 · SV Kapfenberg 1421

	Admira Wacker	Draw	SV Kapfenberg
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Admira Wacker (rating 1465 vs 1421).
H2H favours Admira Wacker: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Admira Wacker	SV Kapfenberg
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.76 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +51’	1.67	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:02 +2’	1.76	3.95	4.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Admira Wacker 5–0–1 SV Kapfenberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Austria 2. Liga	Admira Wacker	6-1 HT 3-0	SV Kapfenberg
01/08/25 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	0-2 HT 0-0	Admira Wacker
31/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Admira Wacker	2-0 HT 1-0	SV Kapfenberg
06/12/24 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	3-4 HT 1-1	Admira Wacker
02/08/24 Austria 2. Liga	Admira Wacker	0-1 HT 0-1	SV Kapfenberg
19/04/24 Austria 2. Liga	Admira Wacker	1-0 HT 0-0	SV Kapfenberg

Standings · Austria 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Blau Weiss Linz	5	4	0	1	13	3	12
2	FC Liefering	5	3	1	1	13	8	10
3	First Vienna FC 1894	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
4	Floridsdorfer AC	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	FK Austria Vienna II	5	3	0	2	7	6	9
6	FC Wacker Innsbruck	5	3	0	2	7	5	9
7	SV Austria Salzburg	5	3	0	2	10	7	9
8	SW Bregenz	5	2	1	2	6	10	7
9	Sturm Graz II	5	2	0	3	10	13	6
10	SKU Amstetten	5	1	3	1	6	6	6
11	Admira Wacker	5	2	0	3	6	5	6
12	Rapid Vienna II	5	2	0	3	6	11	6
13	ASK Voitsberg	5	1	2	2	7	10	5
14	Hertha Wels	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	St Polten	5	1	0	4	1	4	3
16	SV Kapfenberg	5	1	0	4	6	12	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Admira Wacker	SV Kapfenberg
FC Liefering	0-3 L	0-4 L
St Polten	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Admira Wacker (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Admira Wacker

DWDLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Hertha Wels Austria 2. Liga	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
21/08	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
15/08	Sturm Graz II Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/08	SKU Amstetten Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	13	1	L
14/05	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/05	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
02/05	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
26/04	Sturm Graz II Austria 2. Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
17/04	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

SV Kapfenberg

WLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-3	3	7	L
15/08	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
08/08	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
31/07	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
14/05	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
08/05	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
02/05	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L
25/04	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
17/04	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	3-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Admira Wacker vs SV Kapfenberg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Admira Wacker win (54%). Probabilities: Admira Wacker 54%, draw 24%, SV Kapfenberg 22%.

How many goals are expected in Admira Wacker vs SV Kapfenberg?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Admira Wacker 1.81 · SV Kapfenberg 1.07), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs SV Kapfenberg?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.