Football · Austria 2. Liga · 18/09, 18:30

Prediction: SV Kapfenberg vs SKU Amstetten

Team pages: SV Kapfenberg · SKU Amstetten

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

SV Kapfenberg1.06

SKU Amstetten1.66

1X2

24% 25% 51%

SV Kapfenberg Draw SKU Amstetten

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SV Kapfenberg 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLWL

SKU Amstetten 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWDDLW

Head-to-head

SV Kapfenberg 2–2–2 SKU Amstetten (6 last)

SV Kapfenberg0-0SKU Amstetten
SKU Amstetten3-0SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg3-2SKU Amstetten
SKU Amstetten3-0SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg4-2SKU Amstetten
SKU Amstetten1-1SV Kapfenberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SV Kapfenberg 1403 · SKU Amstetten 1544

	SV Kapfenberg	Draw	SKU Amstetten
Our model	23%	27%	50%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SKU Amstetten (rating 1403 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SV Kapfenberg	SKU Amstetten
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	3.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.80

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.86
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.78

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +7’	3.70	3.80	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +471’	3.86	3.99	1.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SV Kapfenberg 2–2–2 SKU Amstetten

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	0-0 HT 0-0	SKU Amstetten
21/09/25 Austria 2. Liga	SKU Amstetten	3-0 HT 3-0	SV Kapfenberg
18/04/25 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	3-2 HT 2-1	SKU Amstetten
04/10/24 Austria 2. Liga	SKU Amstetten	3-0 HT 1-0	SV Kapfenberg
12/05/24 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	4-2 HT 1-2	SKU Amstetten
27/10/23 Austria 2. Liga	SKU Amstetten	1-1 HT 0-1	SV Kapfenberg

Standings · Austria 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Blau Weiss Linz	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	First Vienna FC 1894	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
3	FC Wacker Innsbruck	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
4	SW Bregenz	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
5	Floridsdorfer AC	6	3	1	2	9	10	10
6	FC Liefering	6	3	1	2	14	11	10
7	SV Austria Salzburg	6	3	1	2	13	10	10
8	SKU Amstetten	6	2	3	1	10	8	9
9	Admira Wacker	6	3	0	3	7	5	9
10	FK Austria Vienna II	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Sturm Graz II	6	2	1	3	13	16	7
12	ASK Voitsberg	6	1	3	2	8	11	6
13	St Polten	6	2	0	4	4	5	6
14	Rapid Vienna II	6	2	0	4	6	13	6
15	Hertha Wels	6	1	1	4	7	14	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	6	1	0	5	6	13	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SV Kapfenberg	SKU Amstetten
Admira Wacker	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK Austria Vienna II	2-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SKU Amstetten (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SV Kapfenberg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
28/08	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-3	3	7	L
15/08	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
08/08	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
31/07	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
14/05	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
08/05	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
02/05	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L
25/04	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	11	3	L

SKU Amstetten

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	2-1	4-2	12	2	W
28/08	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	Hertha Wels Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
15/08	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
09/08	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
31/07	ASK Voitsberg Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
14/05	Austria Lustenau Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
08/05	Austria Klagenfurt Austria 2. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
24/04	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
17/04	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	0-3	0-5	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SV Kapfenberg vs SKU Amstetten?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SKU Amstetten win (51%). Probabilities: SV Kapfenberg 24%, draw 25%, SKU Amstetten 51%.

How many goals are expected in SV Kapfenberg vs SKU Amstetten?

The model expects 2.72 goals (SV Kapfenberg 1.06 · SKU Amstetten 1.66), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SV Kapfenberg vs SKU Amstetten?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.