Football · Austria 2. Liga · 30/10, 18:30

Prediction: St Polten vs Hertha Wels

Team pages: St Polten · Hertha Wels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

St Polten1.51

Hertha Wels1.1

1X2

46% 26% 27%

St Polten Draw Hertha Wels

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

St Polten 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWLDD

Hertha Wels 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLWDL

Head-to-head

St Polten 1–2–0 Hertha Wels (3 last)

St Polten1-0Hertha Wels
Hertha Wels1-1St Polten
Hertha Wels2-2St Polten

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Polten 1482 · Hertha Wels 1442

	St Polten	Draw	Hertha Wels
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Polten (rating 1482 vs 1442).
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Polten	Hertha Wels
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.7	2.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Pinn 4.06
2	3.25 → 3.40▲	Pinn 4.23 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +2’	1.95	3.70	3.25
21:11 +1’	1.90▼	3.75▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +1’	1.68	4.01	4.17
21:09 +2’	1.70▲	4.06▲	4.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Polten 1–2–0 Hertha Wels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Austria 2. Liga	St Polten	1-0 HT 0-0	Hertha Wels
28/11/25 Austria 2. Liga	Hertha Wels	1-1 HT 0-0	St Polten
26/08/25 Austria Cup	Hertha Wels	2-2 HT 1-1	St Polten

Standings · Austria 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Blau Weiss Linz	10	8	1	1	26	6	25
2	First Vienna FC 1894	10	8	1	1	21	9	25
3	FK Austria Vienna II	10	6	1	3	17	13	19
4	Admira Wacker	10	6	0	4	13	10	18
5	SKU Amstetten	10	4	5	1	18	14	17
6	SV Austria Salzburg	10	5	1	4	17	14	16
7	FC Wacker Innsbruck	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
8	FC Liefering	10	4	2	4	20	22	14
9	Floridsdorfer AC	10	4	1	5	14	16	13
10	ASK Voitsberg	10	3	3	4	19	19	12
11	SW Bregenz	10	3	3	4	13	15	12
12	St Polten	10	3	2	5	8	10	11
13	Sturm Graz II	10	2	2	6	16	24	8
14	Hertha Wels	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
15	SV Kapfenberg	10	2	1	7	12	19	7
16	Rapid Vienna II	10	2	1	7	10	22	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Polten	Hertha Wels
Rapid Vienna II	0-0 D	1-2 L
First Vienna FC 1894	1-3 L	1-3 L
SW Bregenz	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Liefering	3-1 W	3-2 W
SV Austria Salzburg	1-0 W	0-2 L
FC Blau Weiss Linz	0-1 L	1-4 L
FK Austria Vienna II	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: St Polten (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Polten

LLLLWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	SV Kapfenberg Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-1	11	3	D
16/10	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	16	3	D
09/10	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
19/09	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
13/09	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
21/08	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
14/08	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
07/08	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/07	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	8	7	L

Hertha Wels

LWLDLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	ASK Voitsberg Austria 2. Liga	1-4	2-6	5	3	L
16/10	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-2	2-2	10	5	D
10/10	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
18/09	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/09	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	1-4	7	4	L
28/08	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
21/08	SKU Amstetten Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
14/08	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
07/08	FC Liefering Austria 2. Liga	1-1	3-2	10	6	W
02/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Polten vs Hertha Wels?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Polten win (46%). Probabilities: St Polten 46%, draw 26%, Hertha Wels 27%.

How many goals are expected in St Polten vs Hertha Wels?

The model expects 2.61 goals (St Polten 1.51 · Hertha Wels 1.1), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St Polten vs Hertha Wels?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.